So Close…
Last year, the Kansas City Royals had the best seat in the house for the World Series. The dugout. Unfortunately, the series ended without the celebration and fan fare they had been hoping for. The Royals lost the series in 7 games to the San Francisco Giants. The Mets did not fare any better in their last dance, losing in 5 games to their bitter rivals, the New York Yankees, in 2000. Both teams are looking to right the wrongs of the past, however distant.
The Aces Drive the Mets
For the Mets, the story is always going to revolve around the arms they have in their arsenal. Their pitching staff may be young, but they are not to be underestimated. There is not a single pitcher in their starting four that can not steal a ball game without a second thought. In fact, the Mets top three starters each have a fast ball in their arsenal that averages at least 95 mph, or better.
Matt Harvey, ‘the Dark Knight’ is first up in their rotation, and he brings a lot of high speed pitches that are hard to get a beat on. Up second will be Jacob deGrom, the Mets Ace. deGrom began his college career at shortstop, but by his junior year he was on the mound, first as a closer, then a starter. deGrom is known for being able to locate his pitches, and keep them down and away from batters. If he can continue to do that, the Royals are going to have a hard time igniting their offense against him.
The last two pitchers in the Mets rotation are Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz. Syndergaard is known as ‘Thor’ for his flowing blond locks and imposing size, however, his pitching ability is far more threatening. He gives batters fits, with a blistering fastball and a breaking ball that looks hittable, until it drops hard at the plate. Matz is rookie left-hander with a lot of solid pitches in his arsenal. He has good speed, and can pound the strike zone all night with his fast ball. This rotation is very young, but their skills are legitimate, and can be exceedingly difficult for opposing teams to hit.
It is worth mentioning that the Mets bullpen is not nearly as dominant, but that is rarely an issue because most teams have difficulty chasing any of the Mets starters off the mound early in a game. Once their closer, Jeurys Familia, enters the equation, opposing teams almost always see their hopes of a comeback evaporate quickly.
In This Case, Four Aces Beats a Royal Flush
For the Royals, their starting rotation is going to seem somewhat underwhelming when facing the studs that the Mets will roll out night after night, though there are not many teams that boast the depth that the Mets do in their rotation, so this should come as no surprise.
It looks like the Royals will start off with Yordano Ventura, a pitcher known as ‘the Flame Thrower’ because of his fast ball, which averages around 96+ mph. As a reliever in 2013, he recorded a 101.9 mph fast ball, so he is aptly named. However, he is hittable. He has given up 43 hits in 43 career post season innings in the last two years (mlb.com).
The next pitcher in the Royals arsenal is likely to be Johnny Cueto. He is struggling this post season with a 1-3 record, but the Royals will be hoping for a quick bounce back from him. He lives on his fast ball, which averages in the low 90’s and when he is on, he is very good at locating the pitch up and in on batters for a lot of strikes. His unorthodox pitching style can confuse batters, but it can also get him into trouble at times.
Third in the Rotation is Edinson Volquez, and he has been rocked in nearly every postseason start this season. His current ERA is 6.56 in 23 1/3 innings pitched, and he carries a dismal 1-4 record. Unless he can get back on track, Volquez is not going to be doing the Royals any favors. Finally, the Royals will roll out Chris Young. He is not flashy, but he can be very effective for Kansas City with a 1.76 ERA in 15 2/3 innings of work in the postseason. It is also worth noting that Young has held the Mets to a .160 batting average with 50 at bats. He has also held Mets slugger Yoenis Cespedes to 1-for-11. (mlb.com)
The one plus side for the Royals, if their starters get into trouble, is that their bull pen is quite effective. Wade Davis, Kelvin Herrera and Luke Hochevar have allowed a total of 1 earned run in 20 1/3 innings this postseason. That is an insane 0.45 ERA.
The Mets can easily win a ball game with stellar pitching, and their rotation will likely be the key to this series for both teams.
Edge: METS
Streaking Bats vs. Blistering Offense
The Mets are coming off of a hot streak offensively speaking, with the bats of Lucas Duda, Daniel Murphy and Cespedes all getting hot in the last series. They will need to keep that going, and possibly build on that success, in case the Royals manage to keep the fuse lit on their offense. Streaks are known to end, and the Mets have to be hoping that their stellar pitching, and their batters current hot streak will continue to carry them through the World Series to a victory.
Murphy is still riding a home run streak that he will certainly look to continue into the World Series. Duda has struggled in the post season, but his bat came alive just in time to close out the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS last week. Cespedes is one of the more dangerous hitters Mets have to offer, and he will likely carry that into this series. However, Cespedes did leave game 4 early with a back issue in the NLCS, and that could hamper him in this series if the issue still lingers.
For the Royals to have any chance at not repeating last season’s disappointing end, their hitters are going to have to get to the Mets starting rotation. Their offense has been their best weapon, and it will be even more important against the otherworldly pitching rotation of the Mets. Considering the Mets have two pitchers that are nicknamed after a superhero, and a demi-god, the Royals will certainly have their work cut out for them.
If any team has a chance to make a run at the Mets rotation, it is the Royals. They had an 81.9% contact rate, which was the best in the majors (USA Today). In this postseason, the Royals have scored a whopping 63 runs. So, the potential is there for them to take advantage if they can solve the Mets pitching staff.
Shortstop Alcides Escobar leads off, and has gone 15-for-36 in his post season at bats thus far. He is followed by Ben Zobrist who has gone 13-for-36, and is probably the Royals biggest trade deadline acquisition, even over pitcher Johnny Cueto. Designated hitter, Kendrys Morales has 4 home runs and 10 RBI, while catcher Salvador Perez has 3 home runs and 5 RBI.
The Royals outfielders have also cashed in during the post season, with Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon and Alex Rios blasting a ball deep, as has first baseman Eric Hosmer. In short, there are hitters all over their line up.
The Mets batters can be streaky at best, and the Royals will be hoping that their streak was spent in the last series. If the Royals hitters can get to the Mets pitchers, they have the edge offensively over the Mets batters.
Edge: ROYALS
Missing Pieces
For the Mets, they are still without shortstop Ruben Tejada, who suffered a broken leg in a collision early in the post season.
The Royals have been without Greg Holland, their closer for much of the 2015 season who underwent Tommy John surgery in late September. They are also without second baseman Omar Infante, though Zobrist had eclipsed Infante on the depth chart sometime after his acquisition at the deadline. The biggest loss for the Royals came in July of this year as starting pitcher Jason Vargas went down with an Ulnar Collateral Ligament tear that required Tommy John Surgery. He will not be available until 2016.
The Outlook
For the Mets, starting pitching is the punctuation mark on an already stellar season. Their Aces have been nearly un-hittable and dominated all of the best pitchers that the league had to offer, with several Cy Young candidates falling in their wake.
The Royals could cancel out the pitching advantage if their hitters can get to the starters early and often, driving them from the game. However, even the hottest bats have come up short against the Mets in recent weeks.
The Royals should get some hits in, but it is unlikely there will be any games with scores in the double digits for either side in this match up. Barring an injury to one of the Mets starters, this match up favors the Mets.
Prediction: Mets in 5
