NHL Playoffs: Rest or Rust

NHL Playoffs: Rest or Rust

In the 2013 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs only the San Jose Sharks and the Boston Bruins were able to pull off the coveted four-game sweep. Both teams lost in the very next round. As long as there have been skates hitting ice, there have been people who question whether getting rest in the playoffs is good for a team or does the lack of play make them rusty. Heading into the 2018 NHL Playoffs, I had the same question. So, I did some research and the results were quite surprising.

Swept or Take It To Seven

I took data from the last ten NHL Playoffs (2008 to 2017) focusing on how winners of 4, 5, 6, and 7 game series fared in the next round of the playoffs and what their winning percentage was. First, lets look at the numbers.

It will likely not surprise many of you that teams that swept the round before normally fare very well in the next round. However, many may find it shocking that the those who won seven-game series are the second best teams. Winners of four- and seven-game series both advanced more often than not, unlike winners of five- and six-game series. Seven game series winners have even outdone teams that have swept in certain years. In the 2009 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, seven-game winners were the only teams to finish over a .500 win percentage and the only teams with over 50% advance percentage.

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5-Game Series: The Kiss of Death

After the seven-game winners, the five-game series is the most interesting. Winning a five-game series is nearly the kiss of death. Out of the 10 teams that have played two five-game series in the same playoffs, only two have won championships. The other eight either lost in the second five-game series or the series following.

Another interesting stat I gleamed from these stats is the most common series is the seven game series and it goes in order from most games to the least. This is a perfect demonstration of the parity in the NHL. The competition is so close in professional hockey that it is almost twice as likely to watch a six or seven game series than to see a four or five game series.

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What It Takes To Lift The Cup

Evidently, game six is the series of champions in the NHL. In the last ten years the team that lifted the cup has played more six-game series than four- and five-game series combined. They even have more six-game series than seven-game series, which tend to be the most prevalent. In fact, out of the last ten finals series, seven of them have ended on game six, including the last three in a row.

So, you want to sweep early in the playoffs. If you lose, take it to seven games. Then take a six game win in the finals.