NFL Week 13 Previews and Predictions, Part 1: Thanksgiving Day

Last week’s total: 11-4

Overall record: 111-65

TheAOSN.com picks:

DETROIT

After getting pummeled on the road by New England last week for their 2nd loss in a row, Detroit return to the much friendlier confines of Ford Field and prepare to face off against divisional and traditional foes Chicago. The wait might have to be longer for Reggie Bush to return to full fitness, but the wait for a win and a touchdown (Detroit has not scored any in this 2-game losing streak) should be over by 4:00 pm. Chicago simply has not been able to find any form of note against good teams, amassing a pitiful record of 1-5 against teams above .500 this season. Matt Forte‘s efforts this season (1420 total yards, 8 TDs) have all been in spite of his team’s struggles, and he will find the going difficult against a defense that ranks tops in the league in rushing and 10th in passing. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will be eager to test an uncharacteristically weak Chicago secondary, and Golden Tate is not to be overlooked either.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DETROIT 31, Chicago 17

DALLAS

A traditionally heated rivalry takes on even more significance this Thanksgiving, as this matchup could well decide the NFC East crown by week 15. Depending on help from Green Bay (or more specifically, Green Bay’s opponents), the stakes could be even higher, with a first-round bye in the playoffs on the line. Tony Romo will be looking to extend his remarkable Thanksgiving Day record, having gone 6-1 in his career starts on this holiday, racking up an 18:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. We all know that DeMarco Murray (leading the league in rushing by over 400 yards) and Dez  Bryant (leading the league in TD catches by a wide receiver) have been having great seasons, but as often happens, the Dallas offensive line has been overlooked as the true MVP of the team’s season. Oddly, and in spite of their encouraging play so far, they also come into this home game on a bit of a losing streak, having lost their last 2 home games. Philadelphia would like to add to Dallas’ home woes, and Mark Sanchez will continue to look for his new favorite target Jordan Matthews (18 catches, 322 yards, 3 TDs in the last 3 weeks) to stretch their opponents’ defense, which has been playing better than expected this season, but are still vulnerable. There was a LeSean McCoy sighting last week, including one in the end zone for strangely just the third time this season, which will be a confidence-booster for him and his teammates. Both teams can light up the scoreboard and are vulnerable on the defensive end, particularly against the pass. Look for this one to be a high-scoring affair that may come down to the final possession. With all that is at stake, there may be some chippiness involved as well.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: DALLAS 34, Philadelphia 30

SAN FRANCISCO

Purists who enjoyed hard-nosed, grinding football featuring bruising backs and hard-hitting tackling were given a treat with this matchup last season, which featured two contrasting results in the regular season (a Seattle blowout win at home, and a 2-point San Francisco win at their home) and one of the most compelling NFC Championship games in years in the playoffs. After stumbling out of the gate to start 2014, they have both now appeared to right their respective ships, and just as in the Dallas-Philadelphia matchups in the NFC East, this matchup will be pivotal in determining what looks like an NFC Wild Card position behind the NFC-best Arizona Cardinals. Marshawn Lynch, hardly a fan of media obligations but one who prefers to let his play do the talking for him, will be coming in hurt but also having racked up more than 300 yards over the last 3 weeks. Without a dependable pass-catching threat, Russell Wilson will need Lynch at his best to keep San Francisco’s defense (NFL #6 against the rush) honest, even though he is among the best in the league at improvising on the fly. His counterpart on the opposing side, Colin Kaepernick, has a similar reputation, but where Wilson has been composed, Kaepernick has shown a dangerous tendency to attempt to do too much on his own. This has led to a high number of sacks taken and fumbles lost – a statistic that Seattle’s front seven is surely well-aware of. Don’t look for too much in the offensive department in this game, but the aggressive defenses will make this one of the better low-scoring games you will see this season. The home advantage in this one has proven to be a difference-maker.

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: SAN FRANCISCO 5, Seattle 3

In closing, allow us to share with you one of the greatest Thanksgiving Day NFL memories. Younger fans may probably not recall this, but if you have ever heard the phrase, “He pulled a Leon Lett,” you can rest assured that commentators are referring to one of two incidents in Lett’s storied career with Dallas. The first was in the 1993 Super Bowl, when Lett picked up the ball after a Jim Kelly fumble, and made a beeline for the end zone. Before getting in for the touchdown, Lett stuck the ball out and began celebrating, unaware that Buffalo WR Don Beebe was hustling back behind him. Beebe knocked the ball out of Lett’s hands and out of the end zone for a touchback, and a legend was born.

As if that was not enough, the very next Thanksgiving Day, a freak snowfall hit Dallas, and the Cowboys hosted Miami in the day’s traditional game. Dallas was leading with under a minute left when Miami lined up for a field goal. The kick was blocked, and as the ball rolled in the snow past the line of scrimmage, all Dallas players stood by waiting for the ref’s whistle. Out of the blue, Lett came sliding in with a misguided attempt to recover the ball, and his touch made it a live-ball situation. Miami recovered on the 1-yard line with 3 seconds left and the rest, as they say, is history. Pay close attention to the commentary below once announcers realize which player it is who committed the costly mistake.