NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview and Predictions

AFC Divisional Round

While much is made of the Tom Brady-Peyton Manning rivalry in the AFC over the past decade, another budding playoff rivalry has developed between Brady and Baltimore’s Joe Flacco. This will be the 4th time they will be facing off in 5 seasons, and following victories in the 2009 Wild Card round and the 2013 AFC Championship, Flacco currently holds the edge.

Baltimore was dominant in a resounding win on the road at Heinz Field last weekend, and while New England’s defense is a tougher matchup than Pittsburgh’s secondary, Flacco has shown a good passing rhythm over the past month, finding his capable receiving duo of Steve Smith, Sr. and Torrey Smith with relative ease.

Playing on the road will not faze this team as well – last week’s win was their 3rd straight road playoff win, and Flacco holds the NFL all-time record for road playoff wins with 7. Defensively, it helps to play with a chip on the shoulder in the playoffs, and given the way Baltimore’s defense was hitting and tackling Pittsburgh all night long last week, New England will be wise to be prepared for a physical game.

Almost by default, given the general inconsistency of their wide receivers this season, New England will be counting on Rob Gronkowski to give Baltimore’s linebackers and secondary a torrid time. He has been Brady’s most dependable receiver all season long, and he has the most game-changing potential on New England’s offense.

PREDICTION: Both teams rank in the top 10 in both total offense and total defense categories. This is the time of year for defense to step forth, and we should expect a close one all the way through. Flacco has been turning in Brady-esque playoff performances from the early 2000s, and appears to have the momentum following the victory last week.

BALTIMORE RAVENS, 27-23

We have all heard the mantra of analysts for almost the entirety of the 2014 season: “Peyton Manning has no arm strength. His throws have lacked accuracy. We are seeing the final stretch of his storied career.” A 4-interception performance against the Cincinnati Bengals on the final Monday Night Football game of the season only led to further speculation about Manning that might have been unthinkable as recently as 3-4 years ago. In spite of all the concerns, however, consider the numbers for Manning this season: 4,727 yards, 39 touchdowns, and a 101.5 QB rating (2nd in the AFC). It would appear that odds are still very much in his favor.

On top of that, Denver has actually found a running game now. After injuries ruled their starting running backs out, C.J. Anderson burst onto the scene, gaining more yards and scoring more touchdowns than any other running back in the league since week 11. Most ominously, he has also been a dangerous pass-catching threat as well, as if Manning needed yet another pair of hands on his team.

Indianapolis’ defense turned in an impressive 2nd half against Cincinnati in the Wild Card round, posting a shutout en route to a 16-point win. They will have to maintain full concentration on Sunday, as Denver will pose both a running threat and a passing threat. Andrew Luck did well in committing no turnovers last week, and with the emergence of Daniel Herron in the running game, Denver’s defense will be kept honest, which should open things up for T.Y. Hilton and even Donte Moncrief.

PREDICTION: This game represents a great opportunity for Luck to press the issue of a passing of the torch in the AFC, and beating Manning on the road would be a significant achievement for the young Colts QB. However, the odds are stacked against Indianapolis for good reasons, and ironically, if Anderson‘s consistency continues, Manning may not even have to be much of a factor here.

DENVER BRONCOS, 31-20

NFC Divisional Round

Carolina fans will say their Panthers are due for a win over Seattle, and the results from their last 3 matchups would bear that sentiment out, as Seattle has won all 3 by only a combined 13 points. Seattle fans will simply say, “Come to our house,” as all 3 of those games took place in Charlotte, and it should be a much different story in Seattle.

Make no mistake, though: Carolina is not there to merely make up numbers. Having dug deep after a poor start to the season to win the division, they dominated the second half against Arizona to roll on to a 27-16 win. We know the reputation of Seattle’s hard-hitting, hard-tackling defense, but if any team can match Seattle’s intensity, it is this Carolina team, behind the linebacking tandem of Thomas Davis and Luke Kuechly. Their front seven’s performance will be a key factor in determining how well they are able to do. Keeping Marshawn Lynch at bay will be priority #1.

The comparisons do not end at the defenses. Both quarterbacks in this game are capable of using their mobility to turn a game in their favor. Cam Newton has struggled at times to adapt to being a true pocket QB, but he has the arm and if given enough protection, the accuracy to move the chains with ease. If the Seattle pass rush overwhelms Carolina’s offensive line, Newton has both the legs and power to do some damage on the ground.

Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is a truly rare breed of quarterback who is able to throw well on the run. While he may not put up 4,000+ yards per season, his improvisational ability makes him a threat even when plays seem to break down and pockets collapse.

PREDICTION: Ultimately, the home field advantage should be the determining factor. Carolina is not a team built to come from behind, and the combination of the crowd atmosphere and Seattle’s more playoff-experienced lineup may not need much of a lead to decide this. Having already been counted out as early as October, though, Carolina will not lay down for a beating.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS, 24-10

Dallas is 8-0 on the road this season. Green Bay is 8-0 at home this season. Something’s going to have to give this Sunday when these two teams match up for the first time since the historic Ice Bowl of 1967. Tony Romo has exorcised plenty of demons already this season and is putting up MVP-like numbers, and he will be eager to add another chapter to the story with a win here. He will have plenty of help with the ageless Jason Witten and the mercurial Dez Bryant waiting for his passes, while DeMarco Murray‘s exploits in 2014 have been well-documented.

It took almost an entire half for the Dallas offense to get on track against Detroit last week, not scoring a touchdown until after the 2-minute warning before halftime. They should have no such problem against Green Bay’s defense, which has shown improvement over 2013’s unit but is still vulnerable.

An MVP candidate himself, Aaron Rodgers has been dealing with a calf injury since week 17, and while he should definitely make the start, it remains to be seen how his leg will respond to the weather and the Dallas pass rush. Dallas’ secondary that gives up more than 250 yards a game is ripe for the picking with receivers like Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb at his disposal, but if Rodgers’ mobility and footing are affected by the injury, Green Bay might be in trouble. With those considerations in mind, Eddie Lacy may have a pivotal role to play in the outcome of this matchup.

PREDICTION: In what could end up being relative warmth at a high of 22 degrees at kickoff, Rodgers should be in good shape. However, give Dallas the edge because of a slightly more dependable secondary that might be able to force turnovers or field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone. This one should be a high-scoring affair.

DALLAS COWBOYS, 34-30