NCAA Tournament East Region preview
Villanova (32-2) earned the East Region’s number one seed by winning the Big East regular season and Conference championships. The Wildcats enter the NCAA Tournament having not dropped a game since mid-January, but they have a potential tricky round of 32 game against #8 NC State (20-13) or #9 LSU (22-10). If they move on to the Sweet 16, they will have potential matchups with #5 Northern Iowa (30-3) or #4 Louisville (24-8). Finally, a potential matchup with ACC regular-season champion #2 Virginia (28-3) looms on the horizon. Of course, this being the NCAA Tournament, potential matchups often times do not happen. A team or two can throw a monkey wrench into everything and leave the region in complete chaos.
Players to Watch
Trevor Lacey, G/F, N.C. State- The Wolfpack can either be lethal when they are on (at Chapel Hill against UNC, and vs. Syracuse), or road kill when they are not (see: Duke in the ACC quarterfinals last week, losing to Wofford, Wake Forest, and Boston College). Lacey has scored 20 points or more in eight games this season, and put up 21 vs. Duke in Raleigh in their upset win over the Blue Devils. He also has games where he goes 3/14 and puts the Pack in a hole. The Pack goes as Lacey and his backcourt mates Anthony “Cat” Barber, and Ralston Turner go.
Kris Dunn, G, Providence- Kris is a catalyst for the Friars. He really does a little bit of everything, with his 15.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 7.6 APG and 2.8 SPG. He also has a downside in that he averages 4.1 turnovers a game as well. As good as Dunn can be, he can also taketh away with his decision-making. If the Dunn who finished with a triple double against DePaul shows up in the Tournament, then the Friars can make some moves in the bottom portion of the bracket.
Malcom Brogdon, G, Virginia- Brogdon has hit some huge shots for the Wahoos, but he is not just about scoring. With the Hoos’ disciplined “pack line” defense, he also excels in shutting down or limiting the best wing players on the opposition. His 13.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.5 APG are not really eye-popping numbers, but his usage rate of 24% is ranked 5th, according to KenPom. What does that all mean? To sum it up, Brodgon is a reliable “go get buckets” type of scorer for one of the best teams in the country.
Seth Tuttle, F, Northern Iowa- Tuttle averages 15.3 PPG, 6.8 RPG, and shoots a robust 43% percent from 3-point land. At 6-foot-8, 240-pounds, Tuttle is a powerful forward who carried Northern Iowa to an MVC tournament title. The Panthers were down 36-22 to Illinois State in the Missouri Valley Title game, but behind his 15 points, NIU was able to not only get back in the game, but claim the MVC’s conference crown and automatic berth.
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Dark Horse pick
My pick is also the team I think will come out of this region: #7 seed Michigan State. March is coach Tom Izzo’s time. Izzo often gets a pass for under-achieving in the regular season before winning a few games in March every year, but this Spartan team is coming together at the right time. They have won four out of five (Ohio State, Purdue, Indiana, and Maryland) and gave Wisconsin all they could handle in the Big Ten title game. This may not be Izzo’s deepest or most-talented team, but they are playing rugged like all Izzo teams do and are coming together.
Keep an eye on #5 Northern Iowa as well. A team hovering around the top 10 for the past 2 months, fans and supporters of mid-major basketball might feel slightly aggrieved that the Panthers were only seeded as a 5. The previously-mentioned Tuttle would be a candidate for the Wooden Award if he played at a major program, and the squad has a combination of good shooting (16th in the country at 48.3%) and stifling defense (just 54.3 ppg allowed). They also boast of having FOUR players who shoot at least 42% from beyond the arc. All of this leads into the……….
Matchup to watch
#5 Northern Iowa against #12 Wyoming will be a matchup that flies below most people’s radar, but this has the makings of an instant classic. For starters, it is a classic 12-v-5 matchup, which has statistically and traditionally been the matchup that provides the most opening round upsets. On one side, we have UNI with its shooters. On the other, Wyoming has a top 60 shooting percentage and place an emphasis on ball movement, averaging close to 15 assists per game. Both offenses will be going up against one of the nation’s top defenses, as UNI ranks 4th and Wyoming ranks 8th in points allowed per game. Keep an eye on this one.
Upset Alert
Villanova needs to be on the alert in the round of 32 against NC State, while Belmont is a dangerous team that could give the Wahoo problems. Beware Wildcats and Cavaliers, as these teams could ruin your season.
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And keep up with the action on the AOSN.com NCAA Tournament live blog.
