Entering play on June 7, the National League Central has some surprises — on the winning and losing sides. Four teams are within seven games of the lead with nearly four months to go in the season. This division has a lot of talent, so the cliché that “anything can happen” holds true. Here is how each team has fared through the first 60 games (approximate average for each team).
Milwaukee Brewers (36-26)
The Milwaukee Brewers have surprised the entire division. After finishing 2013 in fourth place (74-88, 23 GB), the Brewers have surged ahead to become true contenders who look like they want this division the most. Even though they are 10th in National League in ERA (3.67), the Brewers’ offense is third in runs scored, averaging 4.20 runs per game. Only two starters have ERA’s in the low 3.00’s (Kyle Lohse, 3.27 and Wily Peralta, 3.03), but Carlos Gomez (35), Ryan Braun (31), and Mark Reynolds (28) have driven in enough runs to make up for the pitching. The bullpen is dynamite: 12-9, 3.58 ERA, and 19 saves with Francisco Rodriguez leading the way at 2-1, 2.19, 18 saves. The Brewers enter play on June 7 with a 66% chance of winning the division according to MLB.com’s Postseason Probability interactive graph.
St. Louis Cardinals (31-31 — 5 GB)
The Cardinals were the favorite to win the division after doing so last year. They have hit a rough stretch, going 2-8 in their last ten games. They are 10th in runs scored and 11th in team ERA, which we might expect from a .500 club. This team, though, is better than .500, and they have a knack for making second-half surges. On the mound, Lance Lynn (6-4, 3.49), Michael Wacha (4-4, 2.61), and Adam Wainwright (8-3, 2.31) have done their jobs, but they have had some trouble in the #4 and #5 spots. The offense does not have the power we are used to seeing, but they spread the production all over the lineup. The Cardinals have a 57% chance of winning the division.
Pittsburgh Pirates (29-31 — 6 GB)
It is a little surprising to see the Pirates below .500 after winning 94 games last year, but they are still in the hunt. Neil Walker (35), Pedro Alvarez (33), and Andrew McCutchen (28) are their usual productive selves. In addition, Josh Harrison has come out of nowhere to make himself well-known. The Pirates have scored 4.05 runs per game but have allowed 4.26. The bullpen has done a great job (16-7, 2.80 ERA, 19 saves). Do not expect another 20-year no-postseason run from this team. The Pirates’ chances stand at 18 % right now, but this team is talented enough to surge at any time.
Cincinnati Reds (27-32, 7.5 GB)
This is the biggest surprise in the division. The Reds have too much talent to play five games under .500 with a 14% chance of winning the division. The Reds’ rotation has a 3.37 ERA, 5th in the National League. Johnny Cueto is third in the Majors at 1.97, but the lack of offense gives him a 5-5 record. Mike Leake (3-5, 3.29) and Alfredo Simon (7-3, 3.03) are doing their jobs, as is Aroldis Chapman (1.64 ERA, 7 saves) following his return from his Spring Training injury to the head. The problem is the offense and its 3.44 runs per game. Only the Padres have scored fewer runs in the National Leauge. Of course, losing Joey Votto on May 15 has not helped, but he was not his usual self. The injury bug has bitten the Reds all year, and it shows.
Chicago Cubs (24- 34 — 11.5 GB)
The Cubs never had a chance at winning this year; the future is their hope, and with their farm system playing well, that future looks hopeful. This year’s Cubs have a 2% chance as of June 7, but they have started to play better baseball, especially at home. They have won four straight and now have a winning record (14-13) at Wrigley Field. Jeff Samardzija could become the Cubs’ lone All-Star selection. He once had a 0-4 record with a 1.48 ERA. He is now 1-5, 2.54 after his only bad outing last time out. Offensively, the Cubs have started to show signs of life. Anthony Rizzo is hot now and has an outside chance at making the All-Star team, but that is somewhat of a long shot. Cub fans can look ahead, though, as their prospects get better and better in the Minor Leagues.
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