As Major League Baseball enters Spring Training each year, fans, analysts, reporters, bloggers, and others associated with the game make their predictions on which teams will make the postseason in October. We base our predictions on rosters, offseason moves, last year’s performance, injuries, track records, “gut feelings,’ emotions, and more.
How accurately we predict begins to come to fruition not long into the season. For example, this year I predicted the Boston Red Sox to repeat as at least A.L. East division winners and go deep into the postseason. That prediction is a wash. However, my predictions of the Detroit Tigers and Oakland Athletics winning their divisions look very promising. In the National League, I had the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Braves winning their respective divisions. As of July 27, I am 1 for 3 regarding leaders with the Dodgers as my one. At least the Braves and Cardinals are both in second place and very close.
With over two months left in the season, the cliche “anything can happen” fits in very well. Remember that the Los Angeles Dodgers found themselves in last place at 21-28 and 7.5 games behind on May 27, 2013. They finished 92-70 and won the N.L. West by 11 games. Therefore, I could end up 6 for 6, 0 for 6, or anywhere in between.
On May 27, I found something very interesting that I had not seen before — something that the “experts” made that shows the mathematical chances of each of the 30 Major League teams’ making the postseason as either a division winner or wild card. MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus combined to make the Postseason Probability interactive graph. With this graph, fans can track their favorite teams or preseason predictions with a statistical analysis that includes performance up to date and simulation of the teams’ remaining schedules. In fact, here is the description quoted verbatim from MLB.com:
“Postseason probabilities are courtesy of Baseball Prospectus and indicate each team’s probability of winning the division or wild card or any postseason berth. Probabilities are based on thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season schedule incorporating each team’s year-to-date run differential, current roster composition, playing time projections and remaining schedule.“
Fans can select any of the six divisional or two wild card races. Fans can even hide any team and view only the ones they want to see. Scrolling over the graph shows each team’s probability of making the postseason as of the date shown.
My two favorite teams, the Cubs and Yankees, have two very different readings as expected. As of July 27, the Cubs’ postseason probability is 0% whereas the Yankees’ score is 37%. The Cubs have had a high of 8% on March 31; the Yankees’ highest reading so far was 59% on April 28.
Whether taking this graph seriously or just for fun, fans can see what the experts calculate as each team’s probability of making the postseason. To see any team’s chances, see the link above, and have some fun.
PHOTO CREDIT: http://www.sportspickle.com/
