The Jacksonville Jaguars have been the butt of many a joke for several seasons now. After a run to the playoffs in 2007 that included a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card round, the road has been decidedly downhill for the franchise since, with just 22 wins so far this decade.
High draft picks have flamed out rather spectacularly, with Blaine Gabbert (dud) and Justin Blackmon (suspensions) the highest-profile players who have been unable to fulfill their promise and motivate the Jaguars to bigger things. Almost unsurprisingly, this year’s #1 pick Dante Fowler Jr. was ruled out for the season as early as May.
And then there’s Blake Bortles…….
The Jaguars’ offense last season ranked dead last in scoring, 31st in total yardage and passing yardage, and 29th in 3rd down conversion rate. Bortles’ line for the season? Last in QB rating (69.5), 28th in completion percentage, 2nd-highest number of interceptions, and among rookie QBs with at least half a season’s worth of starts, he had the lowest yardage.
And yet, all that having been said, the headline is not a mistake, and this is not in fact an addendum to the “Fantasy Landmines” article from earlier today.
Exactly why should there be optimism about Bortles for 2015?
For starters, take a look at NFL.com’s Jeff Darlington’s training camp assessment of Bortles thus far:
“It isn’t often when a player’s offseason progress is so clearly evident in early-August practice, but Blake Bortles, undoubtedly, looks like a better passer entering Year 2. After the Jaguars hired Greg Olson this offseason, the offensive coordinator hooked up Bortles with Tom House, a quarterback guru who has also helped Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Bortles came back to camp with a shorter release, which should help his arm and shoulder better survive the rigors of a full season. In the process, Bortles gained better accuracy, which couldn’t have been more apparent at Saturday’s scrimmage. Bortles threw two perfectly placed touchdown passes to Allen Robinson and Julius Thomas — two plays that put Bortles’ offseason improvements on display.”
Darlington’s overview is but one of several reports that have emerged from Jacksonville’s camp remarking on how much Bortles’ game has improved. NFL.com analyst Charlie Casserly has highlighted his accuracy, footwork, and decision-making as the areas where the improvement is noticeable, and House’s influence on developing a young QB is undeniable.
Bortles and the Jaguars can ill-afford to give up the fifty-five sacks that were surrendered last season, which is surely why the front office prioritized improving the offensive line. Tackle Luke Joeckel continues to emerge as a quality tackle and the additions of veterans Jermey Parnell and Stefan Wisniewski will shore up protection for the offensive backfield.
Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon has also been drawing rave reviews beyond his running ability, and his pass blocking is an added bonus in the quest to keep Bortles upright. His power-running style and pass-catching ability that were apparent in a pro-style offense at Alabama should transition nicely into the NFL, and if he is in fact developing into a good pass-blocker, play action and halfback screens may become a staple of the Jaguars’ offense.
The front office has given Bortles plenty of young talent at the skill positions around him, and Bortles’ success or failure this season will not be for lack of options. Even with the skills of Blackmon denied thanks to his long-term suspension, the team has plenty of receiving talent in Robinson (47 catches, 548 yards, 2 TDs in 9 games in 2014), Allen Hurns (51-677-6), and Marqise Lee (37-422-1 in 8 starts).
Like Bortles, these are all 2nd-year players who look poised to take steps up to the next level.
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For all the young talent in the receiving corps, it will be veteran tight end Julius Thomas who will be the key to the Jaguars’ passing game. Double-duty as Bortles’ safety valve and red-zone threat (24 TDs in 2013 and 2014) will make defenses key in on Thomas, but he is a defensive matchup nightmare who is too fast and athletic for most linebackers and too strong for most defensive backs to handle.
Thomas may not end up with the same 54-640-12 line he averaged in 2 seasons as the primary TE in Denver with a somewhat anonymous QB throwing to him, but he has the sheer physical ability to make up for QB inaccuracy and should be a huge factor in helping Bortles mature as an NFL QB. If defenses counter by collapsing on the inside, that will leave the aforementioned WRs in man coverage and ripe for the picking.
All of the above would be good enough reason to provide an affirmative response to the question of whether or not Bortles would be a viable QB for fantasy purposes in 2015 or beyond, but there is one final element that tips the scale in his favor:
The Jaguars should show some improvement this season, but will still be playing from behind in most of their games. Managers looking for prolific passers could do a lot worse for a deep-league starter or a bye week plugin/roster backup. Consider Bortles a high-end QB2 and with potential low-end QB1 upside by midseason. A 3,500-3,700-yard season with 18-20 touchdowns is not out of the question.
