Ever since the Boston Celtics’ “Big Three,” Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Kevin Garnett went their separate ways, the Atlantic Division of the NBA’s Eastern Conference hasn’t produced a championship-caliber team, nor one that has had a legitimate chance at competing for the conference crown.
Until now.
The Toronto Raptors, a team rarely associated with success in the NBA, has been one of the best teams in the league. The Raptors currently hold the league’s fourth-best record at 45-21, only 2 games behind the Cleveland Cavaliers for the top spot in the Eastern Conference and looking like a serious threat to represent the East in the NBA Finals. Surprised? You’re not the only one.
Throughout the franchise’s history, Toronto has never had much success in the postseason, with the past two years being no exception. The Raptors were eliminated in the first round both years, falling in seven games to the Brooklyn Nets in 2013-2014, and getting swept by the Washington Wizards last season.
But with a talented team lead by All-Star guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, Toronto likely poses the greatest threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ return to the NBA Finals. And with both teams establishing themselves as favorites to win the East, a question arises; if the Cavaliers and Raptors played each other in a 7-game series, could the Raptors shock the basketball world and upset the Cavaliers?
In order to beat the Cavaliers, the Raptors need two components of their game to rise to the occasion: team defense and efficient play by the reserves. Both are well within the Raptors’ capabilities, but there is a difference between potential and production.
When it comes to defense, the Raptors allow their opponents an average of 98.3 points per game (fifth-best in the NBA). Although the amount of points the Raptors allow is among the best in the league, when facing a team with scorers like LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, containing such an explosive offense can prove to be difficult.
With the talent on offense both James and Irving possess, scoring 20+ points seems like a foregone conclusion, regardless of the opposing team’s defensive efforts. Because of this, the Raptors’ best strategy would be focusing on shutting down the Cavaliers’ star’s supporting crew.
J.R. Smith is a perfect example of a secondary player the Raptors should focus on. Smith functions both as a scorer and playmaker for the Cavaliers, averaging 12.5 points and 1.5 assists per game, and can drive his opponents mad with his ability to score at will.
Another player Toronto will need to shut down is Kevin Love. Love is among the most-talented power forwards in the league, with elite shooting, passing and rebounding making him a match-up nightmare. In order for the Raptors’ defense to keep pace with the Cavaliers, preventing Love from establishing his rhythm will be crucial.
Both players could be shut down, but not every aspect of their game. If the Raptors can keep Love from getting hot from the outside and forcing Smith to pass more than shoot, the Cavaliers will be at a disadvantage.
And while the Raptors will need to stop the Cavaliers’ role players, Toronto’s own role players will need to be at the top of their game. Unlike most of the top teams in the league, the Raptors’ bench is not utilized or as deep as others.
The Raptors are a very top-heavy team, relying on Lowry, DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas to make plays for themselves and their teammates on the offensive end of the court. Back-ups Cory Joseph and Terrence Ross are solid contributors, and Bismack Biyombo is a revitalized rim-protector, but there isn’t much to get excited about regarding the Raptors’ bench.
If off-season acquisition DeMarre Carroll can recover and live up to his big-money contract, his return could provide Toronto with much-needed depth, but the number of unproven prospects on the Raptors’ bench put even more pressure on the stars to perform.
However, even if these things were to go right for the Raptors, there are a number of factors that lean towards the Cavaliers still beating them.
At the end of the day, the “better” of two teams generally emerges victorious, especially in a seven-game series, and the Cleveland Cavaliers are a better team than the Toronto Raptors. From top to bottom, the Cavaliers’ roster is loaded with talent, lead by “The Big Three” of LeBron James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love.
But even the Cavaliers’ role-players are solid players themselves that most teams would love to have on their rosters. With Tristan Thompson, Iman Shumpert, Matthew Dellavedova, Timofey Mozgov, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye highlighting the “Big Three’s” supporting crew, the Cavaliers will be able to consistently rotate talented players onto the floor.
Additionally, the Raptors hold a slight advantage over Cavaliers when comparing the two team’s guards (who wouldn’t take two All-Stars like Kyle Lowry and DeMar Derozan?), but the Cavaliers’ advantage in the front-court is overwhelming. The choice between the Raptors’ front-court players: James Johnson, Ross, Luis Scola, Patrick Patterson, Biyombo and Valanciunas, and the Cavaliers’ players: James, Richard Jefferson, Love, Channing Frye, Mozgov and Thompson is a no-brainer; any sane person would pick Cleveland’s group over Toronto’s in a heartbeat.
Finally, the Cavaliers are loaded with veteran players with playoff experience necessary to make a deep run in the post-season, with a majority of the Cavaliers being part of the team that made the NBA Finals last year.
Meanwhile, the Raptors and lack of success in the playoffs have been noted earlier in this article, and if the two teams were to meet, it would likely be in the Eastern Conference Finals (as the Cavaliers and Raptors hold the number-one and two spots in the conference respectively). The Raptors have to prove that they can sustain this level of play into the post-season, while there are no such doubts surrounding the Cavaliers.
Taking all this into account, the Raptors clearly represent a serious threat to Cleveland returning to the NBA Finals, but the team is likely a few pieces short of being able to pull off the upset.
