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Uh oh. Two games into the NLCS, the Chicago Cubs are starting to look like the snake-bitten teams of yore. And while this Cubs team was great all season long, fans will be forgiven for being nervous about the two-game deficit. Forget about curses: the fact that the Cubs lost games started by their two best pitchers, Jon Lester and the near-unbeatable Jake Arrieta, is reason enough to worry.
But hold on a moment: the Cubs could very easily come back and win this series over the New York Mets. Stranger things have happened. Let’s take a look at the road ahead, and single out the keys to victory for the Cubs in each matchup.
Game 3
Wrigley Field
Kyle Hendricks vs. Jacob deGrom
Game 3 is a must-win game for Chicago. Only one MLB team has ever come back from a 0-3 deficit in a seven-game series (though it’s worth noting that it was that other cursed team, the Boston Red Sox, who managed the feat in 2004). Unfortunately, the most crucial game ahead of the Cubs is also the most difficult. The Mets have a big edge here in the pitching matchup, as deGrom has been pitching with poise and maturity (not to mention results) this season and postseason.
It is always possible that deGrom won’t have his best stuff (it happened to Arrieta in Game 2, after all). Barring that, though, the key for the Cubs in this game will be working the count and getting to the bullpen. That may be a tall order for a team that struck out more than any other in MLB this season.
Game 4
Wrigley Field
The Mets will have the pitching edge here again (better get used to that), but Matz may not be quite as ready for prime time as deGrom is. The Dodgers were able to get to Matz in his NLDS start, and Matz ended the regular season with some health issues. Could he still be suffering from the back injury that caused him to miss a start late in the year? The Cubs could finally get their offense going and out-slug the Mets, who (with apologies to Daniel Murphy and Yoenis Cespedes) don’t have as much pop in their lineup.
Game 5 (if necessary)
Wrigley Field
Pitching matchup undetermined; probably Lester vs. Matt Harvey
This is where things get interesting. According to ESPN, the Mets will probably throw Harvey in Game 5, while the Cubs will be able to use Lester again. It is the first of the games we are discussing here that won’t give the Mets a big pitching edge – and that should mean that the Cubs have the advantage. The Cubs have a more threatening offense and will be at home for this crucial game.
Game 6 (if necessary)
Citi Field
Pitching matchup undetermined; probably Arrieta vs. Noah Syndergaard
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The brutal thing about the Cubs’ Game 2 loss was that they spent their ace – and they still have yet to face the Mets’ top guy (deGrom). But if the Cubs can battle back and reach Game 6, you have to love Arrieta’s odds of a rebound. Arrieta has been, without a doubt, a better pitcher than Syndergaard in 2015. The Cubs have a better chance to win Game 6 than the Mets, should it come to that point and should these pitchers be used.
Game 7 (if necessary)
Citi Field
Pitching matchup undetermined; probably deGrom vs. Hendricks
On paper, this is another rough pitching matchup for the Cubs. You’d rather have an ace in this spot, but it’s hard to see how they could do it; the only option would be to pitch Jon Lester on three days’ rest twice in a row (they would have to bump Lester up to Game 4 and then pitch him again in Game 7). That’s pretty extreme, and the Cubs have enough pop in their lineup that they’d probably be better off getting their aces on full rest and trusting their young sluggers to do the rest. After all, anything can happen in Game 7.
