Sports in the United States came to a screeching halt, a stoppage not witnessed since the 19th Century. Even during the deadliest war in human history, baseball continued during WWII, and this April has marked the first April without baseball since 1884, with the creation of the American Association in 1882.
In short, it’s been a long time since the U.S. has been without some sort of sporting event.
Coronavirus Takes Hold
COVID-19 has put the world in a peculiar situation, shutting down businesses, economies, and entire nations. In a world that relies on sports as a form of escape from real life anxiety, even that has found itself impeded from continuing action.
With it being over a month since the NBA suspended its season, society has become restless. Sports have to come back, right? We need them to function, do we not?
Easier said than done, but not impossible.
Hurdles can be seen with Dana White’s attempt to bring UFC 249 to fruition. The attempt was headlined with what is christened “Fight Island”, which now has trademarks pending. The hope was to hold the fights on April 18, but ESPN and Disney, who hold the broadcast rights, intervened. The UFC’s return is set to take place on May 9, but no venue has been announced. This leaves many questions to be answered and much to be desired.
In a recent daily briefing, President Donald Trump addressed the potential return of sports.
“Many of them are going to be starting without the fans, so it’ll be made for television.”
President Donald Trump
First Plan In Writing
What do these returns look like at this moment? The PGA Tour is the first organization to release a tangible plan, releasing a schedule earlier this week.
“[This] announcement is another positive step for our fans and players as we look toward the future, but as we’ve stressed on several occasions, we will resume competition only when – working closely with our tournaments, partners and communities – it is considered safe to do so under the guidance of the leading public health authorities.”
PGA Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan
Without fans in attendance, golf will make its return to the links in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge on June 11. Monahan stressed the importance of widespread testing in an interview with NBC Sports’ Mike Tirico and how it will still determine the tour’s return.
Although moving forward without fans can will lead to a loss of revenue, leagues will have to follow this blueprint.
MLB Plans and Realignment
MLB is yet to start their season, with the suspension of operations just a few weeks prior to Opening Day.
The league has formed a vision for a potential league concentrated in both Arizona and Florida, with another plan just in the former. As per Bob Nightengale, this is what a league realignment would look like, specifically if the league opts to use the two states.
Grapefruit League
- NORTH: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates.
- SOUTH: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles.
- EAST: Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins.
Cactus League
- NORTHEAST: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics.
- WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels.
- NORTHWEST: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals.
The Athletic reported 10,000 employees from 27 MLB teams would take part in a COVID-19 antibody study, the first of its kind, by Stanford University and the University of Southern California.
“This will be the first time we will be able to see how truly prevalent COVID-19 has spread throughout the United States and instead of it taking years to pull together a study of this scope, especially with stay-at-home orders, MLB has helped us turn it around in a matter of weeks.”
Stanford University professor Jay Bhattacharya, MD, Ph.D.
The league’s largest hurdle will be getting players to agree to the return. How will pay structures look like? Will players be willing to stay in hotel rooms and play in the Arizona heat over the summer? Will all members of each organization be willing to stay away from their families for the sake of sport? If all falls in line, a June return seems possible.
The NFL and Its Draft
The NFL has the benefit of its season not beginning until September. However, the NFL Draft is seeing the effects and it is too soon to say if camp will start as regularly scheduled. In fact, reports claim the league is looking at starting their season without fans.
Source says the NFL's contingency-planning is expected to intensify beginning next month: "We haven't really gone into great detail. We know we have to do it. We've been trying to deal with today's issue today. It's not productive on April 15 to be saying what we're doing."
— MarkMaske (@MarkMaske) April 16, 2020
Source says it should be fairly obvious when the NFL schedule for the 2020 season is released how it could be shortened if needed. The schedule is expected to be released May 8 or May 9 as a full schedule, but structured in such a way it could be easily shortened if necessary.
— MarkMaske (@MarkMaske) April 16, 2020
The draft has seen itself turn to a virtual alternative rather than the celebratory event slated to be held in Las Vegas. As per Mark Maske, the NFL will be holding a mock draft to test the technological setup.
What the NFL and experts will see in a draft that is not just outside of tradition, but one that may be less consistent with mock drafts. Prognosticators do not have the benefit of the usual amount of pro days and assessments.
No “groupthink”. What this means is organizations will have to dig deep to form their own opinions.
Do not be mistaken, this still has to do with COVID-19. In the scheme of things, this is still a change in the complexion of league operations. How the NFL operates from here on out is, like every other sport, based on the movement of the virus.
Other Leagues
The NBA and NHL had their seasons suspended just weeks prior to their respective postseasons. The MLS has just gotten off the ground in what was supposed to be a celebration of their 25th anniversary.
All three leagues had been hopeful in returns in May and June, but uncertainty looms. As many may recall, it was Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert who tested positive on March 11, launching the suspension of the NBA. Commissioner Adam Silver had a call with reporters where he expressed said uncertainty.
“Based on the reports that we got from varied outside officials, current public health officials … we are not in a position to make any decisions, and it’s unclear when we will be.”
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver
The NHL has explored different options, looking at North Dokota and recently spoke to the governor of New Hampshire. However, like the NBA and other leagues, there are no plans to allow fans into venues. Leagues across the nation are keeping at bay, with one thing truly in mind.
How Can Sports Return?
Coronavirus testing has not met the needs necessary to return to normal life. The U.S. has confirmed over 720,000 cases and 37,000 deaths in the U.S. alone as of April 19. According to The Atlantic’s COVID Tracking Project, the U.S. is testing around 130,000 to 160,000 a day. In the same article, Matthew Harrison, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, and Harvard Professor Ashish Jha, said we should be testing no less than 500,000 per day, well above the current pace.
As states implement stay-at-home orders, forcing athletes to congregate with many others is in itself a disaster waiting to happen. To forget the human aspect of the athlete is selfish. This is why proper precautions must be taken if a serious move is to be made.
If sports are to return, a few things must happen.
The first is bolstered testing. Just about every athletic governing body has shown that it wants more testing, including within its own sport. The second would be a “flattened curve”, one which reflects a dramatic drop in confirmed cases and deaths.
Finally, a return has to come with a green light from experts and no fan attendance. The consumer simply wants entertainment and sports leagues are well equipped to do broadcast-only events. There are ways to monetize that and salvage some returns.
This can not go without saying there’s not one person out there that is enjoying this. However, the longer society puts itself in a position to spread infection, the longer we will have to sit idly without the entertainment we crave: sports.
The longer society risks itself, the longer we put people out of jobs and their everyday way of life.
A return is imminent. It is our actions that will ultimately determine when that is.
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