The Big Ten entered the last weekend in October with four teams in the top 15; Ohio State at #1, Michigan State at #6, Iowa at #10, and Michigan at #16. The East Division is shaping up to be a two-team race between Ohio State and Michigan State, though Penn State is staying close. In the West Division, Iowa has taken control with a two-game lead over Northwestern and a one-game win and the tie-breaker over Wisconsin.
Ohio State leads the Big Ten by scoring 38.5 points per game, while Minnesota is bringing up the rear with 20.4 points per game. Defensively, Michigan is giving up just 9.3 points per game to lead the Big Ten. Indiana is giving up more than 37 points per game, the worst in the conference.
There are three potential key matchups on November 21. If Iowa stumbles, then the Northwestern-Wisconsin game could decide who wins the West. Michigan and Penn State face off in a battle of two teams that currently have one conference loss. And the big game will be Michigan State at Ohio State in a clash of top 6 teams.
East Division
Ohio State 8-0 (4-0)
Ohio State is still the #1 team in the nation after going undefeated in the first two months. The Buckeyes only beat Indiana by seven, but easily dispatched Maryland, Penn State, and Rutgers.
Ohio State leads the Big Ten in points scored and rushing offense. Running back Ezekiel Elliott leads the Big Ten with 1130 yards rushing and 13 touchdowns. Cardale Jones does not have many yards, but he is fourth in the Big Ten in quarter back rating with 141.7.
The Buckeyes’ defense is only allowing 15.1 points per game, third in the Big Ten. They have 26 sacks, which is tied for third, and nine interceptions, which is tied for the conference lead.
Ohio State continues its National Championship defense with games against Minnesota and Illinois before their big tests. They host #6 Michigan State on November 21, which could be a battle between two unbeaten teams and will probably decide who wins the East Division. The following week they travel to Ann Arbor to face rival #16 Michigan, who may be in the hunt for the East title as well.
Michigan State 8-0 (4-0)
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Michigan State slipped from #2 to #6 due to close victories over Purdue, Rutgers, and #16 Michigan before soundly beating Indiana. The Spartans did remain undefeated and still have a shot at the East Division title.
The Spartans have the second highest scoring offense in the conference with 33.4 points per game. They have done that with a balanced offense, rushing for 155 yards per game and passing for 258 yards per game. Connor Cook is second in the Big Ten with 258.8 yards per game passing and third with a 146.4 quarterback rating. Wide receiver Aaron Burbridge leads the Big Ten with 103.8 receiving yards per game.
Michigan State’s defense continues to be an issue. They are giving up more than 350 yards and 22 points per game. Their 3rd down defense needs to improve as their opponents are converting at a 37.1% rate. The Spartans have been forcing turnovers; they are first in the Big Ten with a +10 turnover margin.
Michigan State plays at Nebraska, then plays Maryland at home before their big matchup at Ohio State on November 21. Their final game of the season is at home against Penn State.
Penn State 7-2 (4-1)
Penn State’s lone October loss came against #1 Ohio State. They beat Army for their last non-conference game and beat Indiana handily. They pulled out a one-point win at Maryland and crushed Illinois to keep their Big Ten hopes alive.
Penn State’s offense has been struggling this year, hanging out near the bottom of the Big Ten in scoring, total offense, passing offense, and rushing offense. Saquon Barkley has been the bright spot, gaining 714 yards on 108 carries and scoring six total touchdowns.
The Penn State defense has been a middle-of-the-pack defense. Their passing defense ranks third in the Big Ten, helped by a conference-leading 31 sacks. Penn State has had a very good turnover margin, +10, which is good for second in the Big Ten
Penn State travels to Northwestern before having a bye week. After that, they host #16 Michigan and travel to East Lansing to face #6 Michigan State. If they can manage to win those three games, they have a shot at the East title, but only if #1 Ohio State loses two.
Michigan 6-2 (3-1)
Michigan started out Big Ten play by shutting out Maryland and Northwestern. #16 Michigan State beat the Wolverines to give them their second loss on the season. They finished October with a win over Minnesota.
Michigan’s offense has been averaging just 25 points per game. Their offense has been efficient in the Red Zone, scoring 17 touchdowns and seven field goals in 25 trip, the best rate in the Big Ten.
The Wolverine defense leads the Big Ten in allowing 210.6 yards and 9.3 points per game. They are giving up less than 65 yards rushing and 150 yards passing. Wolverine opponents are 19 of 97 (19.6%) on third downs and 3 of 11 (27.3%) on fourth downs this season.
Even with two losses, Michigan is ranked 16th in the nation. The first two weeks of November should be easy for them with games against Rutgers and at Indiana. The last two weeks of the season are tougher, going to Penn State and hosting #1 Ohio State to end the season.
Rutgers 3-5 (1-4)
Rutgers lost by a touchdown to #6 Michigan State, then beat Indiana by a field goal. Top ranked Ohio State beat them 49-7 and Wisconsin beat them 48-10 for their worst losses of the season so far.
Rutgers has been averaging 27.9 points per game this season. Their 141.8 passer rating is good for fourth in the Big Ten. Rutgers has converted 41.7% of their third downs, sixth in the Big Ten.
Rutgers’ defense has been an issue, giving up over 450 yards and 34 points per game. Steve Longa has been a bright spot, leading the Big Ten with 91 tackles this season.
Rutgers starts November traveling to Ann Arbor to face #16 Michigan. They play host to Nebraska the next week, then play their last non-conference game at Army. They finish the season by hosting Maryland. It will be tough for them to get to bowl eligibility this year.
Maryland 2-6 (0-4)
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Maryland’s Big Ten schedule started rough with losses to #16 Michigan, #1 Ohio State, and Penn State. Maryland’s best shot at a win was against Penn State, where they had the lead going into the fourth quarter.
Maryland’s rushing attack has been gaining over 180 yards per game, good for third in the Big Ten. Their passing offense, on the other hand, has only been averaging about 170 yards per game. Only Northwestern is averaging less in the conference.
Maryland’s defense is giving up over 34 points per game, which will make it difficult for them to stay in games. They also have the worst turnover margin at -16, and the most penalty yards per game at 73.6
The start of November does not get easier for Maryland. They host Wisconsin, then go to East Lansing to face #6 Michigan State. They end with games against Indiana and at Rutgers. It is possible that Maryland gets 2 Big Ten wins or less this season.
Indiana 4-4 (0-4)
Indiana started their Big Ten season by losing to #1 Ohio state by just a touchdown. The Hoosiers lost to Penn State, Rutgers, and #6 Michigan State to finish October at 0-4.
Indiana has been scoring more than 33 points per game, good for third in the Big Ten. They lead the Big Ten in passing offense and total offense. Jordan Howard is second in the conference with 131.2 yards rushing per game and Nate Sudfeld leads the conference with 292.7 yards passing per game.
With all of that offense, it is hard to see why they are 0-4 in Big Ten play. That is, until you see their defensive numbers. They have given up more than 500 yards of total offense and more than 37 points per game, both the worst in the Big Ten. Getting off the field has been a problem, allowing their opponents to covert 44.7% of their third downs.
Indiana’s first two games of November are home games against ranked opponents, #10 Iowa and #16 Michigan. They finish with road games at Maryland and Purdue. It will be difficult for the Hoosiers to get a conference win this season.
West Division
Iowa 7-0 (3-0)
Iowa won two road games against ranked opponents (#19 Wisconsin and #20 Northwestern) and two home games (Illinois and Maryland) to put themselves in the driver’s seat in the Big Ten West. They are now in first in the West and have the tie breaker over Wisconsin and Northwestern. Their play in the Big Ten has them ranked 10th in the nation.
Iowa has been averaging more than 420 total yards and 30 points per game this season. Jordan Canzeri has been averaging close to 100 rushing yards per game and has scored nine touchdowns on the ground and even has a passing touchdown.
On defense, Iowa has been giving up less than 300 total yards and about 15 points per game. They have nine interceptions and have run two of them for touchdowns. Desmond King has six interceptions to lead the Big Ten.
Iowa’s November schedule is pretty favorable for them. They start with a road game against winless Indiana, then come home to play Minnesota and Purdue before finishing at Nebraska. Barring an epic collapse, they will be in the Big Ten Championship Game. If they are undefeated at that point, a win could put them in the NCAA Playoffs and give them a shot at the National Championship.
Wisconsin 7-2 (4-1)
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Wisconsin started October with a tough loss against Iowa where they could not get their offense going. They had a last second win at Nebraska, then dispatched Purdue, Illinois, and Rutgers to keep their slim Big Ten title hopes alive.
The Badger offense has dealt with injuries to their top two running backs, Corey Clement and Taiwan Deal. They have scored at least 23 points in every win, and 17 or less in both of their losses. They are second in the Big Ten in time of possession as they are still able to grind out long scoring drives.
Wisconsin’s defense has held their opponents to about 11 points per game. They have been stout up front, giving up less than 100 yards rushing per game. Wisconsin has been especially effective in the Red Zone, allowing just five touchdowns and five field goals in 15 trips inside the Red Zone. Joe Schobert has had 9.5 sacks, 14.5 tackles for a loss, and forced four fumbles.
Wisconsin will need to win out and have Iowa lose two if they want to go to the Big Ten Championship Game. For their part, the Badger schedule is accommodating. They have road games against Maryland and Minnesota sandwiched around a home game against Northwestern. Wisconsin should win each of those, but that loss against Iowa really hurt their chances.
Northwestern 6-2 (2-2)
October was the month that decided Northwestern’s Big Ten West fate. Unforutnately for them, it pretty much pushed them out of the Big Ten Championship Game. They started out hot by shutting out Minnesota, but then they were shut out at #16 Michigan. #10 Iowa came to town and blew out the Wildcats before they could salvage a win at Nebraska.
Northwestern’s offense has only scored 20.9 points per game, better than just Minnesota in the Big Ten. They are only averaging 331 total yards and 145 passing yards per game, both last in the conference.
The Wildcat defense has given up just 17.4 points per game, but they gave up 38 to #16 Michigan and 40 to #10 Iowa in their two losses.
Northwestern is practically out of the race for the West title as they are two games behind Iowa and a game behind Wisconsin. Three of their four November games are at home as they host Penn State, Purdue, and Illinois. Their sole road game is in Madison against Wisconsin on November 21.
Illinois 4-4 (1-3)
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Illinois started out October by squeaking past Nebraska. The rest of the month was not so good for them, losing at Iowa, against Wisconsin, and getting shut out by Penn State.
Illinois is protecting their quarterback, only allowing eight sacks all season. However, that same offensive line is responsible for the Big Ten’s worst rushing offense, averaging less than 115 rushing yards per game.
The Illinois defense has been pretty good this season. They lead the Big Ten with nine interceptions, but they are also last in the Big Ten with eight sacks.
Illinois has one conference win, but they will have a tough time getting another one. They play at Purdue and at Minnesota, and they host Ohio State and Northwestern.
Minnesota 4-4 (1-3)
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Minnesota was shut out at Northwestern in their first Big Ten game, then came out and beat Purdue on the road. They finished October with a pair of home games, losses to Nebraska and #16 Michigan.
Minnesota has scored the least amount of points this season, just over 20 per game. The Golden Gophers have only scored nine touchdowns and seven field goals in 20 Red Zone opportunities.
Minnesota’s defense has been average this season. They are giving up about 23 points per game, but they have only given up more than 24 once, in a 48-25 loss to Nebraska.
Minnesota has a tough November schedule, starting with road games at #1 Ohio State and #10 Iowa. They finish at home against Illinois and rival Wisconsin.
Nebraska 3-6 (1-4)
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Nebraska lost four consecutive games on their opponent’s last possession, including at Illinois and home against Wisconsin to start October. They won at Minnesota, then lost to Northwestern by two and at Purdue by 10.
Nebraska’s offense has been gaining more than 445 yards and scoring more than 33 points per game. After their 407 passing yards against Purdue, they are averaging over 275 yards per game. However, they have thrown 13 interceptions, including four against Purdue. Kicker Drew Brown leads all kickers in the Big Ten with 76 points.
The Nebraska defense has given up more than 28 points per game, including 85 points in the last two games. They have given up more than 315 yards per game in the air. They need to take the ball away more, as their turnover margin is -8.
Nebraska’s disappointing season could get worse. They host #6 Michigan State and #10 Iowa, with a road trip to Rutgers in between. If they cannot get a couple of upsets, they will miss the bowl season.
Purdue 1-6 (0-3)
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Purdue’s rough season continued through November. They came within a field goal against then-#2 Michigan State before losing to Minnesota and at Wisconsin. They finished the month with a 55-45 win over tough-luck Nebraska.
Purdue’s offense has been at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in most categories. Until their 55-point outburst, they were averaging just 350 yards and 23 points per game.
The Purdue defense is giving up more than 430 yards and 34 points per game. They have managed to intercept 10 passes this season, four of them against Nebraska.
Purdue finishes its season with road games against Northwestern and #10 Iowa and a home finale against Indiana. They will be fortunate to get one conference win this season.
