Atlanta Braves: The Future Could Be Bright…Eventually

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Times are not great for the Atlanta Braves, as they are currently 20.5 games back behind the first place Washington Nationals in the National League East. The Braves sit at a record of 26-52, which is the worst record in the National League and the second worst in the MLB behind only the Minnesota Twins.

This season is also the last that will be played at Turner Field, as the Braves will move to SunTrust Park which is located north of Atlanta. When Turner Field was opened, attendance was sky high, but it has since dropped drastically, going from an average of 42,771 fans per game in 1997 to just 24,709 fans per game last season. The questions for the Atlanta Braves of 2017 will likely be based around who will be taking the field in that new stadium, and whether or not people will pay to come see them in their new stadium.

Most Important Players

For the Braves to have a successful team in 2017, they will need their impact players to continue to play well and they will need their young prospects to come up and exceed expectations. The three most important players for the Braves are first baseman Freddie Freeman (signed through 2021), outfielder Nick Markakis (signed through 2018), and starting pitcher Julio Teheran (signed through 2019). Freeman has been one of the team’s best hitters since his rookie season in 2011. He is currently batting .282 with 28 RBI and 13 home runs while reaching base 36.8% of the time. He is leading the Braves’ hitting statistics in four of the five major categories (batting average, home runs, on-base percentage, and hits).

Freeman and Markakis are the only two players on the Braves roster that has played in more than 65 games this season. Markakis has helped the Braves in several ways since coming over from Baltimore in 2015. Last season he led the team in batting average, on-base percentage, hits, and games played. This season his average and on-base percentage have slipped, but his RBI numbers are up and he has played in all but two games this season.

As for Teheran, he leads a Braves pitching staff that is currently ranked 17th in the MLB in ERA with a 4.37 mark. His numbers are not bad, owning a career record of 43-37 with a 3.30 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP, but the team around him has hurt his wins total this season, only winning three games through 16 starts. Teheran is a player that could be one of the best pitchers in the league if he were able to get some run support, as his season ERA is at 2.46 and his WHIP is at 0.89. His WHIP is a number that currently ranks second to only Clayton Kershaw. Teheran is the ace of a staff that has struggled to an outrageous point, as the other starters have hardly been effective.

These three players will be in the new stadium for at least two seasons, and for the Braves to have a chance of getting out of the gutter they will need to be leaders to younger players coming up. Freeman is in his age 26 season and is by now a seasoned veteran, Markakis is 32 and has been in the league since he was 22, and Teheran is in his age 25 season, but has the experience of being the team’s ace for the third consecutive season. All of these guys will need to rally the young prospects for success to happen in 2017 and beyond.

Current Team

Of the eight starting position players on the Braves roster, five of them will have their contracts expire after this season. This might actually be a good thing for the Braves, as many of the players have not been regular contributors to winning at any point this season. Freeman is currently the only player on the Braves with an offensive WAR above 1.0, which is not a good sign for them as a team, and they will have to make adjustments for success in the future.

Erick Aybar is perhaps the most over-paid player on the Braves offensive lineup, as his 5-year, $40.1 million contract from his days with the Angels has the Braves paying $6 million this season for a player that has hit .209 with 10 RBI in 57 games and has a negative WAR in 2016. Luckily for the Braves, they have several prospects who could possibly fill Aybar’s roll at shortstop.

Among the starters whose contracts will be up after this season are second baseman Jace Peterson, who has hit .272 in 37 games this season, third baseman Adonis Garcia, who is third on the team in RBI, and left fielder Jeff Francoeur, who is back with the team that drafted him and is hitting .265 with 18 RBI.

At catcher, Tyler Flowers is signed through 2017 and is on track to have the best season of his career in his first season with Atlanta. The Georgia native has hit .245 with 15 RBI and 5 home runs in 45 games this season, but he is somewhat of a defensive liability as he has caught just 6% of base stealers.

Center fielder Ender Inciarte is also only signed through this season and he is having a down year, as he recorded a .292 batting average with 72 RBI, and 40 stolen bases in 250 games with the Arizona Diamondbacks, but is hitting just .238 with 7 stolen bases and 8 RBI in 50 games with Atlanta.

Infielder Gordon Beckham has also been helpful to the Braves this season, as he leads the team with a .382 on-base percentage and is hitting .284 with 16 RBI in 31 games. However, Beckham is currently on the 15-day disabled list with a hamstring strain.

Future Team

Of the Braves top 11 prospects according to MLB.com, eight of them were drafted in the first round of the MLB Draft. Their top prospects feature eight pitchers and three infielders. The infielders are include the number one overall draft pick from 2015 in Dansby Swanson, who was acquired in a trade with the Diamondbacks that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona. Six months after the Diamondbacks made Swanson the number one pick, they traded him away, which is not something that is seen often. The Braves hope that Swanson will be able to replace Aybar at shortstop, as Aybar has struggled greatly this season. Swanson is currently playing AA ball in Mississippi and has hit .277 with 34 RBI in 69 career minor league games.

The Braves’ next best position player prospect is also a shortstop, which may complicate things should neither be able to switch positions. Ozzie Albies is an international free agent from Curacao who will be 19 years old for all of the 2016 season. Albies is a switch-hitter who has the potential to hit .300 from either side of the plate. In 78 minor league games, he has hit .281 with 27 RBI and 11 stolen bases while reaching base 34.5% of the time, Albies is currently playing with AAA Gwinnett. Albies could be seen in the majors as early as this season, should the Braves decide to make a move at shortstop. The Braves also have a 19-year old third baseman prospect in Austin Riley, who has hit .262 with 33 RBI for Single-A Rome.

Outfielder Mallex Smith is another name that could be part of the future for the Braves, as he is currently is his rookie season with them and is batting .237 with 21 RBI and 14 stolen bases in 58 games. However, he is currently on the 15-day disabled list.

The pitching prospects for the Braves are rich in talent, starting with their #2 prospect, left-handed pitcher Sean Newcomb, who was the 15th overall pick in the 2014 draft by the Los Angeles Angels. Newcomb was acquired by the Braves in Andrelton Simmons deal this past offseason, and has posted a 4-4 record with a 3.78 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP with 80 strikeouts in 15 starts at AA Mississippi. Newcomb stands at 6’5″ and 255 pounds and his fastball sits around the 94-97 range.

Another pitching prospect that could see some action in Atlanta soon is 23-year-old Tyrell Jenkins, who is the Braves’ 7th best prospect. In 14 games in the minors, Jenkins has amassed a 6-3 record with a 2.91 ERA and 45 strikeouts. However, his WHIP is a bit high at 1.45.

The Braves’ 9th best prospect is left handed pitcher Max Fried, who was the 7th overall pick in 2012 by the San Diego Padres and was acquired by the Braves in the Justin Upton deal before the 2015 season. Fried had Tommy John surgery four months prior to being traded, and his first pitching appearance in 2016 was the first for him in the Braves organization. In 15 minor league starts, he has recorded a 6-5 record with a 3.77 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and 75 strikeouts.

Outlook

The Braves likely will not see much success this season, but the future has potential. A new stadium will bring new excitement, and a farm system that is rich with prospects will fill the Braves lineup with young talent in the near future. This is not the year of the Braves, and I doubt that 2017 will be either, but 2018 and on looks like it has potential to get Atlanta out of the gutters.

*Team record and player stats as of June 29, 2016

 

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