Will the San Diego Padres be the next Toronto Blue Jays?

On August 5, 2014, the San Diego Padres hired A.J. Preller to be their General Manager. This was not a move that excited many folks outside San Diego until a week after the annual December winter meetings. That is when, within a 12 day span (which included Christmas), Preller would trade for the following group of players:

1. OF Matt Kemp
2. C Tim Fedorowicz (never played a game due to preseason injury)
3. C Derek Norris
4. RP Seth Streich
5. OF Justin Upton (free agent signed with Detroit Tigers)
6. RP Aaron Northcraft
7. CF Wil Myers (only played in 60 games due to injuries)
8. 3B Will Middlebrooks (.212 batting average in 83 GP, now with Milwaukee Brewers)
9. RP Jose Castillo
10. RP Gerardo Reyes
11. RP Shawn Kelley (free agent now with Washington Nationals)
12. RP Brandon Maurer (attempting to become a starter again in 2016)

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The San Diego Padres (a 77 win team in 2014) were labelled a legitimate playoff contender for 2015.  If not by winning the NL West, then by securing a wild card spot. The media darlings the Padres had become was quite reminiscent of the 2012 Toronto Blue Jays off-season.

That was the off-season the Blue Jays were involved in the controversial trade with the Miami Marlins which netted them 2B Emilio Bonifacio, C John Buck, LHP Mark Buehrle, RHP Josh Johnson and SS Jose Reyes. Nearly a month later, Buck would be on the move as then Blue Jays General Manager Alex Anthopoulos would acquire reigning NL Cy Young award R.A. Dickey. The Blue Jays also added Melky Cabrera from free agency.  What was a 73 win team in 2012, was now expected to make the playoffs in 2013. The Blue Jays would finish 2013 with 74 wins, last in the AL East.

The once near-flawless team was now being ostracized in the media for all their shortcomings. Changes were demanded by fans and media. Management did not heed to the cries of the masses but instead rolled the dice believing that it was a combination of bad luck and hard luck for the abysmal season. Possibly the best example of the Jays bad luck was the gruesome looking injury suffered by Jose Reyes only 10 games into the season.

The Blue Jays finished 2014 83-79 and only 5 games out of a wild card playoff berth. It was the Blue Jays first time since 2011 finishing the season above .500. Last season, the Blue Jays were an American League playoff team.

The first step in the bounce-back from being media darling busts, like the Blue Jays showed, is first getting back to a .500 record. Projections of a last place finish for the Padres in 2016 are already in circulation. That is what happens when you come off a disappointing year though because it is human nature to simply go with the flow.

Yes, the Padres traded away arguably the best closer in the game, Craig Kimbrel, for players who are not household names…yet. Yes, they also lost Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy to free agency.

So why the belief the Padres will have their first .500 record since 2010? (Side note: If the expanded Wild Card playoff system were in place at that time, the Padres would have been a playoff team.) For starters, the Padres have answered the questions that hounded them throughout last season.

The first such question: who is going to be man at shortstop? Alexi Amarista is back but if he was not the answer last season, he will not be the answer this season. The answer: Alexei Ramirez!

The next question was what to do with Jedd Gyorko? Gyorko went from Rookie of the Year nominee in 2013 to roadblock in 2015.  The Gyorko trade brought in outfielder Jon Jay which enables the Padres to permanently move Myers to first base and enables them to hand the second base duties to Cory Spangenberg. Two birds with one stone as the old saying goes.

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Speaking of Myers, the trade of Yonder Alonso has to make you believe that Myers is fully recovered from his wrist surgery back in June. In his three years in the league, Myers has never appeared in 88 games or had more than 373 plate appearances. Expecting 150 plus games is unfair, but so is expecting him to appear in less than 100.

Then there is the difference one year makes in regards to the outlook towards the starting rotation. Heading into 2015 season with the late signing of free agent James Shields, folks in San Diego were very excited about their pitching rotation. A rotation that should have dazzled led by Shields, Andrew Cashner and Tyson Ross instead fizzled.

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Shields finished with his personal highest ERA since the 2010 season. Another comparison to his 2010 season that shines through is that was also the last time he went through a season without pitching a complete game.

Cashner finished 2015 with his personal worst ERA as a starter. Going into the All Star break, Cashner’s record sat at a miserable 3 wins – 10 losses, but he allowed 3 or less runs in four of those losses.

Ross was the only pitcher who made strides in the conversation of “who is the real ace” of the staff even with his 2015 pitfalls. His career high in strikeouts (212) came along with his career highs in walks (84) and wild pitches (14).

Shields, at age 34 and one year removed from being a MVP candidate, is not washed up and should improve. Cashner was thought by some to be ace material, and if he can keep the ball in the park (personal worst 19 homers against last season) and continue to turn into a strikeout machine (165 in 184.2 innings), he could become an All Star this season. Much like a continuing-to-improve Ross could once again find himself an All Star after missing the ballot last season. The excitement should not be lost over a rotation spearheaded by these three gentleman.

Every team has questions:

1. Can the Los Angeles Dodgers’ predominantly left-handed pitching rotation succeed.
2. Can the San Francisco Giants live up to the “even year” pressure?
3. Is adding Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller really enough for the Arizona Diamondbacks to climb up the standings?
4. Will the Colorado Rockies get progression from all their young pitchers?

Is the sum of the answers to all the Padres questions (some still being answered, it is only January) their first .500 season in 5 years? Ask the Blue Jays, it is the first step to making it back into the playoff picture.

It may not be exciting to think the Padres are still a year from playoffs but you never know. With the heartache going on in San Diego with the Chargers, a strong start in April may put the Padres on a magical ride.