Sweet 16 Preview: East Regional
I am not claiming to be Nostradamus, but a few things I predicted for this region before the tournament started have come true in the East Region Preview that was posted on this very website.
“A team or two can throw a monkey wrench into everything and leave the region in complete chaos”: Safe to say that the NC State Wolfpack and Michigan State Spartans have done exactly that.
“Villanova needs to be on the alert in the round of 32 against NC State”: Turns out Villanova got too late last Saturday night.
“My pick is also the team I think will come out of this region: #7 seed Michigan State“: They have not won the region yet, but they are now halfway there. With the region falling apart around them and the Oklahoma Sooners looking vulnerable against Dayton, and then a prospective matchup against either NC State or Louisville, the road to the Final Four is very manageable.
Let’s get into the matchups slated for Friday night in Syracuse, NY at the Carrier Dome.
In the first game, it will be #8 NC State vs #4 Louisville.
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It will be a rematch of the Wolfpack’s 74-65 Valentine’s Day win behind Anthony “Cat” Barber‘s 21 points. The Cardinals at that point had not dismissed Chris Jones, who was a great on-the-ball defender. Now, Louisville faces a dangerous offense without one of their best defenders and are hoping Terry Rozier and Quentin Snider can stay in front of Barber and harass snipers Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner.
The Pack also outrebounded the Cardinals on the glass 47-37 (BeeJay Anya and Caleb Martin had 10 each) in February, which will be a huge concern for Rick Pitinoafter how State just beat up #1 Villanova in the paint on Saturday night. Lennard Freeman and Abdul-Malik Abu had 11 and 13 points respectively on 9/17 shooting from the field combined.
One more thing about the February matchup was that Chris Jones was the leading scorer for Louisville with 20 points. The Cardinals are going to need to find that kind of output from someone else, and that falls on the shoulders of Snider or Rozier, neither of whom scored in double figures in the first matchup. Wayne Blackshear had 19, and they will need every bit of that, if not more, so the pressure will not be all on Montrezl Harrell, Snyder, and Rozier.
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The winner of this game will be the team that dictates the tempo. If NC State can break the pressure, and find Turner, while Lacey finds holes in the 2-3 zone along with a big day in the paint, they will win. If the Cards can force Barber and company to turn the ball over and get easy baskets, while they hit from three, along with better output from Harrell on the glass and in the paint, the Cards will be moving on to Saturday and the Elite Eight.
The second game of the doubleheader features #3 Oklahoma vs. #7 Michigan State.
Lon Kruger head coach of the Sooners is no stranger to the Sweet 16. Kruger is taking his fourth different school to the Sweet 16 (Florida, Kansas State, UNLV, Oklahoma).
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Neither is his counterpart Tom Izzo of Michigan State. Izzo is making his 13th appearance in 18 years in the round of 16.
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These two teams met last year in the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY, when Michigan State won the game 87-76 after the Sooners had closed to within four points in the second half. OU returns four of five starters from that team, including Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield, and are one of very few teams to return the same starting lineup from last year.
“We were fortunate to beat them,” “They were a little younger then and we were actually a better team then. It was still a dogfight.” “We know a little bit about them, but we’re going to know a lot more in the next 48 hours,”” Izzo said.
“I’m not sure if I should thank him or not, but it was a good experience,” Kruger said Monday on CBS radio.
OU seems to build on that experience, but are facing a much different squad than they played last season. Gone from the Spartans is Adrian Payne, Keith Appling, and Gary Harris.
Travis Trice is the player the Sooners have to look to shut down scoring wise, Denzel Valentine does a little bit of everything, bringing the ball up the floor, rebounding, passing, or scoring), so the Sooners need to get him in foul trouble, and finally, Brendan Dawson can beat the Sooners up in the paint area so they need to slow his output.
“Every year you change a little bit,” said Kruger. “You hope to learn from the experiences, take additional information. Tom’s had the luxury of having the winning culture and being able to recruit to that culture, and kind of do the same thing year after year, which is a great thing. We’ve kind of been a little bit more flexible in terms of playing to the strengths of our players a little bit more and changing a little bit more from year to year.”
So will it be the Sooners who learn from last year against the Spartans, or will the Spartans, who have adapted to life without last year’s excellent crop of seniors, find a way to upset another top seed and advance to Indianapolis?