Part 1: 5 Storylines to Watch
Part 2: 10 Facts and Figures About Super Bowl XLIX
THE GAME
In the last Super Bowl played in Glendale, the New York Giants faced the heavily-favored Patriots, who were bidding to become only the second team in NFL history to have a perfect season, in Super Bowl XLII. After watching New England steamroll through the opposition during that regular season and put up record numbers, Tom Coughlin’s approach in the Super Bowl was clear: the Giants needed to roll the dice and go with a heavy pass rush to disrupt Tom Brady’s rhythm in the pocket, and the strategy paid off, as they pulled off the upset while Brady was under constant pressure all game long.
To this day, Brady has shown the capability of picking an opponent apart with the short-to-medium range passing game and he has made a living with passes up the middle. If given time, he will easily keep the chains moving and ensure that New England dominates the time of possession.
This is where Seattle’s defensive front will have to step up and keep Brady under fire from the get-go. While much has been said about this defense, and for good reason, Bruce Irvin, Cliff Avril, and Michael Bennett will have to produce a better pass rush than they have been able to establish so far in the playoffs, as they have only been able to sack opposing quarterbacks 3 times. Brady was noticeably flustered as the Baltimore Ravens dialed up a more aggressive rush against him in the Divisional round, and if there is one thing Seattle’s defense under Dan Quinn has not lacked, it is aggression.
As for the secondary, the exploits of the hard-hitting, hard-nosed Seattle defensive backs have been detailed ad nauseum over the past 2 seasons. While there is an injury concern leaving Earl Thomas‘ status for Sunday in doubt, there is still plenty of talent between the likes of Kam Chancellor, Richard Sherman, and Byron Maxwell to provide New England’s receiving corps with a daunting matchup. Just as a quick recap, this is a team that has only given up an average of 163 passing yards a game since November, and they have made a habit of shutting down top-notch quarterbacks, with their most recent effort limiting Aaron Rodgers to just 178 yards passing on 19 out of 34 attempts with 2 interceptions.
Speaking of habits, however, Brady has shown a propensity for playing at a higher level against strong defenses this season. In 6 games against teams ranked in the NFL’s top 10 for pass defense this season, he has thrown for 1818 yards and 17 touchdowns. With Rob Gronkowski‘s athleticism and physicality to match Seattle’s defensive backs up the middle and Julian Edelman‘s elusiveness and speed after the catch capable of turning a short pass into a long gainer, there are great options available for Brady to patiently find gaps. Seattle’s secondary will also be wise to not underestimate Brandon Lafell and Danny Amendola‘s ability to make big catches that may not go for big yardage, but could provide all-important third-down conversions.
While they are deep with running backs, New England’s best option on Sunday is going to be LeGarrette Blount. This is not simply based on his performance in the AFC Championship game, where he rumbled for 149 yards and 3 touchdowns in poor weather, but keeping in mind his running style and the matchup on paper. Standing at an even 6 feet and 250 lbs., Blount is no threat to ever be considered the league’s fastest RB, but what he does possess is a powerful style that enables him to work through tackles, and once in space, he has the height to generate even more power in the open field with his strides.
As detailed in Part 1 of TheAOSN.com’s Super Bowl Preview, Seattle has shown some slight cracks in their run defense in the postseason, and Blount’s power style is similar to that of Jonathan Stewart and Eddie Lacy, the two backs who gave Seattle headaches in the Divisional Round and Conference championship respectively.
And while we’re on the topic of running backs with a power style, Marshawn Lynch will as usual be more than happy to let his play do all the talking for him, and Seattle will be looking to establish dominance on the ground first and foremost. Max Unger‘s return to fitness after a slight injury scare following the NFC Championship will be a huge relief, as it ensures a healthy offensive line for the top rushing offense in the league. Lynch has the ability to both break a defense’s back with one huge play and wear them down with his pounding style. At his best running between the tackles and looking to crash through to the next level where he can use his speed and power to break open big runs, this might be an MVP night for Lynch.
New England’s defense is not exactly a no-name outfit, and with Darrelle Revis, Devin McCourty, and Brandon Browner, they can boast one of the best secondaries in the league. The challenge they face in this game falls primarily on the defensive front, however – between corralling Lynch’s running game and keeping an eye on Russell Wilson and the read-option offense, the X-factor on Sunday may be Dont’a Hightower patrolling the area behind the line of scrimmage. If Lynch comes through the line, Hightower becomes the safety valve for the defense before the Patriots secondary face a physical mismatch; and if Wilson starts scrambling to improvise a play, it will be Hightower’s primary duty as the middle linebacker to ensure coverage remains tight.
What does it say about Wilson’s confidence that on a day he threw 4 interceptions, he was still ready to uncork a deep shot to a receiver who was not only in tight coverage, but was the same receiver whose coverage was responsible for all those interceptions? That moment really does speak volumes about the level of self-belief Wilson has, and helps to explain his meteoric rise from a middle-round draftee to a Super Bowl-winning QB and budding superstar. His ability to throw accurate passes on the run as part of the read-option package Pete Carroll runs will be tested against a strong secondary on Sunday. Without a true elite wide receiver option, the short passing game will be essential to victory, and this is where Wilson may look to an oft-overlooked option like tight end Luke Willson. Expect lots of crossing patterns and quick outs to try to keep New England’s defense constantly on the move, as this will serve the dual purpose of keeping the defense guessing as well as tiring them down for the running attack.
TheAOSN.com Prediction
New England strikes early as Bill Belichick dials up some trick plays to keep Seattle’s defense on their toes. However, their ability to stymie Seattle’s offense early is offset by red-zone inefficiency, and a dominating first half is not reflected on the scoreboard. Eventually, Lynch’s physical barrage and Wilson running the read-option to perfection wear out New England’s defense, and Seattle becomes the first repeat champions since 2005.
(Feature image: NBC Sports)