A Surprising Match Up
After the New York Mets clinched their NLDS series against the L.A. Dodgers, one thing was clear. Neither of the teams going to the NLCS were the teams that anyone expected a few weeks ago. For many, it would have been the St. Louis Cardinals and the L.A. Dodgers without a seconds hesitation. Instead, it is the youthful, and exuberant Chicago Cubs vs. the team that came back from an abysmal mid-season record of 40-40 to win the NL East, The New York Mets.
The two teams have never met in the postseason, but that will not stop long time Cubs fans from remembering the 1969 collapse of their beloved Cubs to the Mets in September of that year. Though everyone knows that was just one in a long series of disappointments for the Cubs over the last 107 years. Unless you have been living in a snow bound country without any form of communication with the outside world, you already know that is how long it has been since the Cubs won a World Series. As droughts go, the Sahara Desert is a little jealous of the one the Cubs have produced.
The Hottest Team In Baseball Gets Hotter
For the Cubs, the road wasn’t easy. They were coming into the playoffs in the wild card slot, and standing behind two of the best teams in in the National League. In fact, the three teams at the top of the Central had the best three records in all of baseball. Jake Arrieta was once again the story for the young Cubs ball club, as he dominate the Pittsburgh Pirates in the winner take all Wild Card game at PNC Park. He was confident, and he had a certain swagger that was well earned, as he had the distinction of being the most un-hittable pitcher in history after the All-Star break. His ERA for the second half was 0.86, and his last loss going into the postseason came on July 25. (mlb.com)
Whatever helps keep your hope alive, just know, it doesn’t matter. @Cubs https://t.co/bJDN1wP0tS
— Jake Arrieta (@JArrieta34) October 4, 2015
As you can imagine, Arrieta’s Wild Card start was just as dominant as he predicted. He pitched a complete game shut out, without walking a single batter and striking out eleven hitters. The Pirates never even had a chance. The Cubs then set out to face the Cards, the undisputed heavyweights of the National League with the best record in baseball. They had all the pieces. Good pitching, a great catcher, and a veteran cast that could play the field and blast the ball out of the park, but they also carried some bumps and bruises from a long season. Adam Wainwright had been relegated to middle reliever due to injuries, and Yadier Molina was struggling to hit with a thumb injury (and did not play in game 4). Ultimately, it made no difference who the Cubs faced in the St. Louis line up, because the young guns came alive in game two and never looked back. In game 3 alone, six different hitters homered for eight total runs, a trend that carried them to the NLDS title in game 4, in spite of using most of their bullpen in that game.
Arrieta carried them through the wild card, and the hitters returned the favor in the NLDS. The Cubs were the only team in either league not to go to a game 5.
From One Of The Worst To First
The Mets’ narrative is considerably different than the one they had written through their last meeting with the Cubs on July 2nd. At that point, they were slumping at 40-40 on the season, and had lost every game in the season series to the Cubs, both at home and away. To say things looked bad would be an understatement, but then the Mets acquired Yoenis Cespedes to bolster their outfield, and the team went on a tear that placed them right at the top of the NL East.
They faced the Dodgers aces, Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke, who are two of the best the league has to offer. And they also faced a slide by Chase Utley that sidelined Ruben Tejada for the rest of the season. Utley was penalized (out 2 games that he later appealed) on the play after the game, but no call was made at the time of the incident. The Mets were able to produce just enough runs in the deciding game 5 to edge out the Dodgers and move on to the next series against another formidable pitcher in Jake Arrieta. The Mets have already survived two of the best pitchers in the league, but will they have enough fire power to get by one more?
The Firepower
The Cubs are loaded with young, strong kids that know how to hit. However, the youngsters are also prone to swinging at pitches that a more seasoned veteran would let go by unhindered. Not that this seemed to matter, as they simply crushed the ball in the series against St. Louis. Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo all sent balls to a final resting place on some lucky fan’s mantle, and they were not the only ones. Dexter Fowler, Jorge Soler, Javier Baez and Starlin Castro all got in on the action in the Cardinals series. This team is young, but they are for real when it comes to providing offense. If the bats stay hot in Chicago, this will be a formidable threat for the Mets.
The Mets are capable of producing a lot of hits as well, as is evidenced in their 13-7 hitting clinic in Game 3 of the series against the Dodgers. However, they are not the most consistent hitting team left in the post season, nor do they hit the ball out of the park quite as much. Cesepedes has been a spark plug since he joined the team in July. Lucas Duda is another hitter the Mets are hoping will come alive in the series, but he has been streaky at best. The return of David Wright should also boost their offense, but it may not be enough against the blistering hot Cubs.
The Arms
The Cubs have arguably one of the best one-two punches remaining in the playoffs in Jon Lester (who will start game 1 and carries a 3.34 ERA) and Arrieta (who will start game 2 and carries a 1.77 ERA). Little needs to be said about the pair beyond what has already been stated, and the fact that they are really good. Thus far, they have also used Jason Hammel (3.74 ERA), and Kyle Hendricks (3.95 ERA) with Dan Haren (3.60 ERA) also being available wherever he is needed. Where the Cubs can get into a bit of trouble is with their middle relievers. Pedro Strop (2.91 ERA) can be absolutely outstanding, but when things aren’t clicking, he can also be a big liability. Travis Wood (3.84 ERA) has found his stride in relief, it is not where he wanted to be, but it is where he fits into this ball club, and he has learned to relish his role. The closer is Hector Rondon (1.67 ERA), and he was rock solid providing the final three outs of the pitching carousel the Cubs rolled out to close the NLDS.
For the Mets, they will kick off game 1 with Veteran Matt Harvey (2.71 ERA) on the mound. Their top pitcher, Jacob deGrom (2.54 ERA) will wait until game 3 in the round as he just pitched in Game 5, against the Dodgers. That would possibly bring up young Steven Matz (2.27 ERA), with only 35.2 innings pitched in his career, or Noah Syndergaard (3.24 ERA), another young pitcher with a bit more seasoning. Do not let the youth in this rotation fool you, this is one of the deepest rotations remaining in the playoffs. Where they can be taken advantage of is with their middle relievers with veterans Bartolo Colon (A former starter with an ERA of 4.16), Tyler Clippard (2.88 ERA), and Addison Reed (3.38 ERA) all likely to see some work. Closer Jeurys Familia (1.85 ERA) will certainly make a few appearances on the back of his dominant finish in the Dodgers Series.
Bumps and Bruises
No team makes it far into the playoffs without some injuries. For the Cubs, the most notable injury is to Addison Russell, the rookie shortstop with a very bright future. Russell suffered a quad strain while running to third in Game 3 of the Cards series, and missed Game 4, in favor of Javier Baez. He may be available in the World Series should the Cubs advance, but Joe Maddon has ruled him out for the NLCS. They will also be without reliever Jason Motte.
Shortstop seems to be the trend, as the Mets will also be without Ruben Tejada, who suffered a fibula fracture in his collision with Chase Utley during the Dodgers series. They are also missing a number of relievers and Juan Uribe, who is not expected to return for the series.
Who Has The Edge
Both teams have solid starting rotations, with the Mets holding a bit of an edge. However, the Cubs can cancel that out if they can get beyond the starting rotation and force the relievers to take a lot of innings. If Cubs batters continue to send balls to Sheffield and beyond, this is a likely possibility, and one that would put the edge in this series firmly in the hands of Maddon and the red hot Cubs. For the Mets, their bats will have to support their starting rotation and they will have to bring their A game on defense. This is Maddon’s chess match and so far, he’s been making all the right moves.
CUBS in 6
The action kicks off on Saturday at 7:07pm (CST), at the Mets’ Citi Field and will air on TBS.