(Part 1, the NFC projection, can be found here)
The AFC enjoyed a period of domination over the NFL in the 2000s, winning 7 of the 10 Super Bowls contested in that decade. In the 2010s, however, the NFC has reversed the trend, and even more convincingly, going 4-1, with the only blemish being San Francisco’s loss by a field goal in 2013. With 11 teams holding winning records at the midway point in the season, the contenders from this conference are gunning for the ultimate prize come February 1st to start tipping the balance a bit more in their favor. Below is a broad overview of the current AFC standings and what to look for as the playoff picture continues to develop.
AFC
Even though still mathematically alive for a postseason berth, there are simply too many winning teams across the board in the conference to give Oakland, Jacksonville, New York, and Tennessee any serious consideration. Three of them are clearly building for the future, with Jacksonville especially leaning on contributions from rookies and younger players like Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, and Denard Robinson, while Bishop Sankey, Derek Carr, Khalil Mack, and Zack Mettenberger are going to be counted on by their respective teams to continue developing. New York is (and has been) a mess right now, and until they can find a franchise quarterback or Geno Smith begins to justify the hype, they will continue to struggle.
Behind the superhuman efforts of J.J. Watt, there is some reason for optimism in Houston, in spite of the losing record. Ultimately, they should finish at or just above .500, which would still be a vast improvement on last season’s 2-14 finish. Several key pieces are in place with DeAndre Hopkins and JaDeveon Clowney, and depending on how Ryan Mallett adjusts to life as a starting quarterback in the NFL, this could be year 1 of a rebuilding project for the team.
5 wins is good enough to be among the AFC Wild Card positions if the season ended today, and that keeps postseason hopes alive for up to 6 teams. San Diego (5-4) and Kansas City (5-3) will be slugging it out for a strong finish in the west, and their week 17 matchup could be a playoff decider. After winning 5 straight, San Diego has dropped 3 in a row, and Philip Rivers looked terrible against Miami while getting shut out in week 9. Their bye week comes at a great time, and they have 2 favorable matchups in weeks 11 and 12 before a tough final stretch. Kansas City looks good for at least 8 wins, but December will be a tough run. It does not help that 4 of their remaining 8 games are against fellow playoff contenders in both the AFC and NFC.
The NFC North could make a strong case for the toughest division in all of the league this season, with all 4 teams holding winning records. This creates a muddy picture to project a division winner from this group, but currently, Cincinnati holds the lead by the slimmest of margins. That extra half in the win column following their tie with Carolina may end up being a key factor in deciding the division. They will definitely need A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard at full health in the latter half of the season. Pittsburgh has eminently-winnable games on their schedule to get to 10 wins, but 3 of those come on the road, where they have been inconsistent. Ben Roethlisberger‘s surge of form over the last two weeks (762 yards, 12 touchdowns) has been eye-popping, and they may need those numbers. Everyone knows about Antonio Brown, but keep an eye on Martavis Bryant as well.
Cleveland is easy to overlook because…….well, because it’s Cleveland. However, as long as good Brian Hoyer shows up and bad Hoyer doesn’t make an appearance, they find ways to win. This is where having Josh Gordon reinstated just in time for the final stretch of games is going to make a huge difference, as that will give them a legitimate deep threat option. It remains to be seen how their offensive line injuries affect their depth and durability. In Baltimore, a resurgent Steve Smith has injected new life into an offense that was rocked by controversy earlier in the season following the Ray Rice saga. There’s nothing to suggest they cannot get to 10 wins as well, with a favorable schedule in December and a late bye week that should freshen up their legs.
Buffalo‘s 2nd-half schedule is a tough one, including trips to Denver, New England, and Miami. With a running attack down to 3rd-string Boobie Dixon or a less-than-100% Fred Jackson, rookie receiver Sammy Watkins’ number will be called on. He has responded with almost 300 yards in the last two weeks, but he has also never had to play a 16-game season. They will do good to finish at 8-8. Miami has been an intriguing case study this season, with Ryan Tannehill looking like he is now fully embracing the starter’s role. A tough defense that gives up less than 20 points per game (18.9) will be the foundation for a playoff run here will be tested against the likes of Joe Flacco, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, and Matthew Stafford. Look for a 2nd-placed finish in the division, but the jury is out on whether 9 wins will be enough to advance.
As many teams that are in the AFC playoff picture currently, the projection here is that the top 6 will remain the same, with a little bit of shuffling in the final positions.
DIVISION CHAMPION PROJECTIONS: Denver (top seed), New England, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis (bye)
Denver has more than enough offensive weapons at its disposal under Manning’s leadership to run the table and wrap up home-field advantage. With last season’s unfinished business in mind, they have also been much better on the defensive end this season, shutting down running backs (league-best 71.6 yards per game) and Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware racking up sacks as expected. For a team that was supposedly in crisis after getting embarrassed on national tv back in September, New England has responded admirably, reeling off 5 straight wins while scoring more than 40 points on 3 of those occasions. Rob Gronkowski looks to be in great health, and Brady has been playing at his usual high level. Their ball-hawking secondary (3rd in the league with 10 interceptions) complements an offense that has the capability to force teams into passing to try and get back in games. This team may hit a slight bump in the road with a couple of losses after their bye week, but they also get to round out the season with games against Miami and Buffalo at home and New York on the road.
Pittsburgh’s chances, as stated above in the AFC North breakdown, hinge primarily on their offense’s ability to light up the scoreboard as much as it has in recent weeks. Addressing a defense that ranks near the middle of the league in most major categories will be a big step to improve their odds. Andrew Luck, in the space of just 2½ seasons, has shown exactly why he was drafted with the first overall pick in 2010, and with T.Y. Hilton finally showing consistency and Dwayne Allen emerging as a top tight end, this team has the ability to move the chains quickly or rely on ball control behind the healthy Trent Richardson and Ahmad Bradshaw.
WILD-CARD PROJECTIONS: Cincinnati, Kansas City
The extra ½-win will in fact decide Cincinnati’s fate as they edge out Baltimore. In the West, Kansas City beats a group of 9-7 teams to the post, with a better division record than Cleveland and Baltimore and and with a better record against common opponents than Miami.
WILD-CARD ROUND PROJECTIONS
This will be their 3rd matchup in less than a month, and will create a coaching headache on both sidelines. Definite advantage to the home team here.
The week 4 hammering that Kansas City delivered will be a distant memory in this matchup, but it should give them some confidence going into a tough road venue.
If you get the feeling that this AFC season seems to be an ongoing progression towards yet another Manning-Brady AFC Championship matchup, you are probably not alone. The other teams that figure to be in the playoffs will not have made it for nothing, and they will be more than happy to play spoiler on their own road to what they hope culminates in hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in Phoenix.
(Featured image: NFL.com)