After 9 weeks of action, every NFL team is either at or just past the midway point of the season. By the end of week 12, the league will hit the home stretch, with 5 straight weeks of a full slate of action, beginning with the three Thanksgiving Day games. While it may be a bit too early to begin prognosticating about which six teams from each conference will earn postseason berths, this point of the season is a good time to evaluate the direction of each team and begin to form an early (if fuzzy) picture of their playoff hopes.
NFC
Using the process of elimination, Tampa Bay is simply not in the picture. An inconsistent offense with a revolving-door running back situation (and indecision surrounding the quarterback, apparently) does not leave much room for confidence. This team is in more contention for the #1 pick in the 2015 Draft than a playoff spot. Atlanta‘s inability to defend and win on the road will be their undoing this season. Though only 2 games out of the lead in a poor NFC South and holding a 2-0 division record thus far, 3 of their remaining 4 division matchups are away from the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome. They also face a Murderer’s Row of Arizona, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh in weeks 13-15, and their elimination should be confirmed by then.
Two NFC East teams are next to be scratched off the list, as Washington and New York have simply dug themselves a hole too deep to crawl out of in the division, let alone the conference. Though mathematically still possible, the prospects of a 3rd team from this division making the playoffs are beyond dim. The same applies to St. Louis, with all 3 of their division foes already ahead of them.
Chicago is currently last in their division, but of all the sub-.500 NFC teams, they have the best chance of surging into a Wild-Card spot. Matt Forte is having a career season, and Jay Cutler has the capability (and options) to prove former teammate Brian Urlacher wrong. The matchups are friendly in that respect, as they will come up against several vulnerable secondaries. Now, if they can just find a way to win at home……
The process of Carolina‘s unraveling seems to have begun after a good start to the season, but considering everything that the team has lost this season on both ends of the ball, this was perhaps inevitable. A footnote here is that this is a team that historically plays well in December (11-3 in the last 3 seasons), but it is hard to project this team getting double-digit wins. Minnesota is the very definition of a middle-of-the-road team this year, beating teams with losing records and losing to teams with winning records. With that clockwork predictability in mind, they are staring at an 8-8 finish. But if Adrian Peterson suits up……..
And now, on to the top 8, which are the teams with the most realistic chances of advancing to the postseason:
DIVISION CHAMPION PROJECTIONS: Arizona (top seed), New Orleans, Detroit (bye), Philadelphia
Arizona deserves more press this season, and they have not built their conference-best record for nothing so far. After missing out on the playoffs last season despite having 10 wins, the route to the postseason this year is unfinished business for them. Inconsistency has plagued New Orleans in the first half of the season, but the momentum of 2 strong wins in a row and a healthy Mark Ingram to go with a very friendly schedule for Drew Brees’ arm should see them turn things around. Matthew Stafford has been up-and-down as well this season, and Calvin Johnson and Detroit‘s backfield have been hit by the injury bug, but their defense has been playing at a different level this season. After 3 tough matchups beginning with this week against Miami, they should be able to run the table the rest of the way to finish with at least 11 wins. Nick Foles is out for an extended period, but Mark Sanchez has been down the playoff road before, and his athleticism is a good fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, so that should give Philadelphia the edge at the top of the NFC East.
That leaves us with Dallas, San Francisco, Seattle, and Green Bay to contend for the 2 Wild Card spots. Of the 4, Dallas looks like the favorite behind DeMarco Murray‘s career season. The biggest question mark will be Tony Romo‘s health, and their week 11 bye might turn out to be the key to their offseason hopes. 10 wins are a distinct possibility for Green Bay, and they would do well to clinch before hosting Detroit at home in the final week of the regular season. That should not be an issue, and it will be hard to bet against Aaron Rodgers against the soft defensive backfields he will be facing. Seattle and San Francisco have yet to play each other (weeks 13 and 15), and after two titanic battles in 2013, those matchups loom even larger. Over the last 5 weeks of the season, Seattle has to travel to San Francisco, Philadelphia, and Arizona, while San Francisco has 3 home games and only has to cross the Bay for one of their 2 road games.
WILD-CARD PROJECTIONS: Dallas, Green Bay
Although not rare, it is not often that a defending Super Bowl champion fails to make the playoffs the following season, and other than trading away Percy Harvin (who was injured for most of 2013 anyway), Seattle did not lose any key players. The whispers of locker-room instability have grown a bit louder in spite of denials from the team and injuries have affected their intimidating defensive unit, which may be reasons behind their struggle to be consistent this season. San Francisco has a decent shot at more wins than Seattle in the second half of the season, but it may only be enough to tie up their record with Seattle’s come season’s end.
WILD-CARD ROUND PROJECTIONS
Brees and co. will be eager to reverse the result of an early-season collapse against Dallas, and they will have the benefit of being the home team this time.
This will be a repeat matchup from the regular season, with Green Bay making the trek to Philadelphia this time. If the weather cooperates, this has the makings of a good old-fashioned rivalry game in inclement conditions.
Of course, a lot can change between now and the final week(s) of the regular season. Based on current form, however, the projections above look to be the likely NFC scenarios as we get to the next step along the road to crowning the 2015 Super Bowl champion.
(Featured image: NFL.com)