Thursday, October 23rd
8:25 pm ET @ Sports Authority Field/Mile High Stadium (CBS/NFLN)
In one of the tastiest Thursday night matchups in recent years, San Diego goes to Denver this week, as two of the best quarterbacks in the entire league face off in what could end up being a key divisional battle. With the benefit of national coverage, this is also a tremendous opportunity for both teams to lay down a marker for their intentions as far as the rest of the season goes. Denver is keen to go one step further than they did last season, faltering (disastrously so) only at the final hurdle; and San Diego, for years an “almost-there” team, look like they are ready to truly contend behind Philip Rivers’ career season thus far.
On the other side, it feels strange to think that after all these years of sustained excellence, there remain questions about Peyton Manning‘s ability to win big games, and yet that question mark continues to hang over his head. Coming off the game last week where he set the all-time record for touchdown passes, Manning will be guarding against a letdown week, and he has a plethora of targets at his disposal.
For San Diego, Rivers has been in great form all season long, ranking in the top 3 for QB Rating, yards, touchdown passes. At Mile Hligh Stadium last season (also on a Thursday night), they were able to upset Denver behind the running effort of Ryan Mathews. With Mathews unavailable due to injury since week 2, Brendan Oliver has filled in admirably, chalking up over 450 yards of offense and 3 touchdowns so far.
Oliver may find it tough going against a Denver defense that gives up less than 75 yards rushing per game, but he is an effective pass-catching back, and will keep their outside linebackers Von Miller and Brandon Marshall honest in case their defensive gameplan for the night includes a constant pass rush. The Oliver-Denver linebackers matchup cannot be overlooked. If they focus too much on going after Rivers, that opens up seams for screen passes to Oliver or quick slants to other receivers; and if they focus on coverage, that will give Rivers more time in the pocket.
Tight ends Julius Thomas and Antonio Gates may not be leading the league at their position in terms of yardage, but their ability to get the ball into the end zone is unquestionable, with a ridiculous 16 touchdowns between the both of them already so far this season. San Diego defends tight ends better, and Denver’s defense has given up catches and yardage to players in that position without yet facing anyone of Gates’ quality. However, San Diego will also be without cornerback Brandon Flowers, and if that doesn’t open things up for Thomas, it will definitely open things up deep for Demaryius Thomas (521 yards and 5 touchdowns in the last 3 weeks). Or Emmanuel Sanders. Or Wes Welker. Or……well, you get the picture.
Rivers has been spreading the wealth this season, and the likes of Keenan Allen (34 catches), Eddie Royal (23), and Malcom Floyd (20) should be able to allow San Diego to keep pace with Denver if this becomes a shootout.
Manning against the 3rd-ranked pass defense in the NFL missing a key starter. Rivers against an average pass defense but facing a solid rush defense that may limit ball control opportunities. After several successive weeks of primetime blowouts, last week’s Thursday night game was a nail-biter, albeit one that featured a lot of sloppy play.
Both teams in this matchup have been very disciplined this year, and are rightly considered top contenders in the AFC. Throw in the added stakes of a divisional matchup, where San Diego is already a half-game behind, and viewers should be prepared for an exciting game.
FINAL PREDICTION
It is extremely difficult to pick against Peyton Manning against a shorthanded secondary, no matter how potent San Diego’s offense may be in return. It should be close, but ultimately comfortable for Denver at home.
DENVER 34, San Diego 24
(Featured image: USA Today/Matthew Emmons)