Thursday, October 16th
8:25 pm ET @ Gillette Stadium (CBS/NFLN)
“What goes up must come down.” Thus goes one of the most basic premises of gravity. After more than a decade as a perennial contender atop the AFC, the Patriots seemed to have been subjected to the sporting version of that scientific law, when after a 2-1 start to the season, they were embarrassed 41-14 at Kansas City in a nationally-televised matchup. As it turns out, any alarm bells about Tom Brady being past it may have been premature, as all he’s done since then has been completing 50/72 passes for 653 yards, 6 touchdowns, and no turnovers in 2 straight wins. Last week’s win over Buffalo may have come at a price, with Stevan Ridley and Jerod Mayo picking up season-ending injuries. While Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden figure to take over the bulk of the RB duties, rookie James White, who looked impressive in training camp, will get some looks as well. Given Bill Belichick’s tendency to go with the hot hand at RB, this may be White’s best opportunity to prove himself. Meanwhile, in the passing game, the Brady-Rob Gronkowski partnership appears to be back in fine form, as Gronkowski has doubled his number of receptions for the season over the last 2 games. A pass rush that managed to rack up 5 sacks last week, and a total of 12 tackles for loss over two games, will be eager to put pressure on the Jets’ line, which has given up an average of 12 sacks so far this season.
The Jets, as one would expect from a Rex Ryan-coached team, have been statistically good on the defensive side this season. They are giving up less than 100 yards on the ground per game, and their front seven leads the AFC in number of sacks. The problem is twofold: (1) While putting up good numbers, the Jets’ defense is conceding more than 26 points per game, and (2) the Jets’ offense is simply not very good. Geno Smith has the lowest QB Rating among all qualified quarterbacks in the league, and a rushing attack which has struggled since opening strong has been hampered even further by offensive line injuries. On top of that, their secondary also took a hit this past week when Dee Milliner was lost for the season. On the bright side, TE Jace Amaro is quietly putting together a fine rookie season, ranking among the top 5 in receptions and top 8 in receiving yards among first-year players. With more efficient passing, WRs Eric Decker and Jeremy Kerley could test this secondary, and consistency from the Chrises Ivory and Johnson would keep the Patriots defense honest.
PREDICTION: There is really nowhere to go but up for the Jets, but their prospects at getting their first win at New England in 6 years look dim. The Patriots’ running game may have lost Ridley, but as vulnerable as the Jets’ secondary has been, this game may set up nicely for a steady diet of Gronkowski and plenty of check-downs to Julian Edelman. A dependable pass-catching RB, Vereen will see plenty of running or receiving lanes open up for him as Brady and his receivers stretch the Jets’ defense, and New England should dominate time of possession.
FINAL SCORE: NEW ENGLAND 27, New York 10.