As we enter the month of December, folks everywhere begin to get excited for the festivities of the holiday season. NFL fans are no exception, as the race to be one of the final 12 teams left in the 2014-2015 playoffs enters its final stretch.
A season that has seen its usual share of twists and turns, controversies, surprise results, emerging contenders and confirmation of mere pretenders now promises four more weeks of intense competition as the gladiators of the gridiron leave it all out on the field. The hopes that their teams will still be preparing for action come January are simple, yet will require their utmost mental and physical sharpness.
The current playoff picture following week 13, including remaining contenders for the Wild Card spots in each conference, stands as follows:
CURRENT NFC STANDINGS
1. ARIZONA (9-3)
Remaining schedule: Kansas City, @St. Louis, Seattle, @San Francisco
Still holding on to the NFC’s top seed despite being mired in a 2-loss mini-slump following the loss of starting QB Carson Palmer for the season, Arizona faces a tough stretch to finish out the season. There is some solace in the fact that the two toughest matchups will come at home. The long-awaited surge in Andre Ellington’s production on the ground will need to come soon, because Drew Stanton has not yet shown he has the consistency and accuracy that Palmer had.
2. GREEN BAY (9-3)
Minnesota, @Buffalo, @Tampa, Detroit
R-E-L-A-X, said Aaron Rodgers back in September. 8 wins out of 9 later, it turns out he was being prescient. There is perhaps no team that has been as consistently good as Green Bay has seen this season after overcoming a sputtering start. Jordy Nelson has been having a career season and should rightly be considered one of the league’s elite WRs, and while Eddie Lacy’s numbers have been below expectations, his eye-popping 5.2 yards per carry average over the last 3 weeks cannot be overlooked.
3. PHILADELPHIA (9-3)
Seattle, Dallas, @Washington, @New York
The Thanksgiving Day win at Dallas was both unexpected and a huge boost to Philadelphia’s bid for a first-round bye. The next two matchups are pivotal, and they could not only sew up the division crown, but put a huge dent in two other NFC contenders’ hopes with home wins. From that point on, the hope is that LeSean McCoy has been saving himself for a late-season surge after an underwhelming season. This team needs better coverage from its secondary if they are to be trusted as a true contender.
4. ATLANTA (5-7)
@Green Bay, Pittsburgh, @New Orleans, Carolina
In what has been a legendary season of ineptitiude by the NFC South, Atlanta stands to benefit the most (with a home game, to boot). Even in the absence of a consistent running game, there is little doubt that offensively, this team can stick around with the best of them. The problem is that they are often in positions where they HAVE to be able to keep up, because they cannot stop anyone. Against a competent defense that will be able to pressure Matt Ryan and shackle Julio Jones, they will be in trouble.
5. SEATTLE (8-4)
@Philadelphia, San Francisco, @Arizona, St. Louis
Injuries have ravaged the defending champions, and in spite of numerous denials, rumors of locker-room disharmony have also surely come into play. Trading away their best WR who was thought to have been a culprit for the latter has placed the ball squarely on the shoulders of Marshawn Lynch’s violent running and Russell Wilson’s improvisation. It is Wilson’s ability to create something out of nothing that is a true wild card (pun intended), because that style of play demands complete concentration from defensive backs, and the frustration mounts with each completed pass.
6. DETROIT (8-4)
Tampa, Minnesota, @Chicago, @Green Bay
On paper, Detroit has a fairly easy route to ensuring at least 11 wins. Reggie Bush should be returning to game fitness at just the right time to boost one of the league’s worst rushing offenses. If the old cliché that defense wins championships holds true, this fearsome front seven might be Detroit’s best chance in years to make a run, as they have the capability to thwart any opponents’ attempts at a ball-control offense with their suffocating run defense.
THE BEST OF THE REST
7. Dallas (8-4) – @Chicago, @Philadelphia, Indianapolis, @Washington
8. San Francisco (7-5) – @Oakland, @Seattle, San Diego, Arizona
9. New Orleans (5-7) – Carolina, @Chicago, Atlanta, @Tampa
10. Chicago (5-7) – Dallas, New Orleans, Detroit, @Minnesota
Of these 4, the team with the most realistic shot at the playoffs is also obviously Dallas, with the current best record among them. A 3-game home losing streak has to be rectified by the time they go back to AT&T Stadium the week after the potential NFC East decider at Philadelphia, though. San Francisco is looking at a 9-7 finish, even though they have the comfort of not only 2 home games, but a short hop to Oakland for one of their away games. They may be out of the running by week 17, but they also have the potential to deny Arizona the conference’s #1 seed with a win in week 17. The only realistic hope for New Orleans is to win 3 of their last 4 (including beating Atlanta) to get to 8-8. Chicago requires entirely too many scenarios to line up for them to make it, but with 3 home games in windy Soldier Field against 3 teams with postseason ambitions, they have the opportunity to be the ultimate spoiler this season.
PROJECTED NFC FINISH
TheAOSN.com projects the following:
1 and 2 seed: Green Bay and Philadelphia run the table to finish at 13-3 for the #1 and #2 seeds respectively.
3 seed: Arizona drops one against either of Seattle or San Francisco to finish at 12-4 (#3 seed).
4 seed: New Orleans wins the NFC South at 8-8 and earn the #4 seed. Their record could potentially be 9-7, but the edge goes to Chicago at home in week 15.
5 seed: Detroit wins 3 straight before losing to Green Bay in week 17 to finish 11-5 with the #5 seed.
6 seed: Seattle loses at Philadelphia and at Arizona to finish 10-6, losing the head-to-head tiebreaker against a Dallas that should finish with a similar record after losing at Chicago and at Philadelphia. That will give Dallas the #6 seed. Otherwise, Seattle will be #6 at 11-5.
Conversely, any number of scenarios still exist where 7 of the top 9 NFC teams currently still have a shot at the overall top seed and the highly-coveted homefield advantage throughout the playoffs. Amazingly, the current #1 seed Arizona could also drop completely out of the playoffs altogether. There is the potential of a three-way tie at 13-3 or even 12-4 at the top of the conference, at which point a myriad of tiebreakers will kick in. 13-3 records for Arizona, Green Bay, and Philadelphia will see them seeded 1-3 in that order, with the first two earning the byes. At 12-4, different scenarios emerge where the conference wins tiebreaker will come into play. Currently, Arizona has the conference wins tiebreaker with a 7-2 record, while Green Bay’s record is 6-3 and Philadelphia’s is 5-3.
CURRENT AFC STANDINGS
1. NEW ENGLAND (9-3)
Remaining schedule: @San Diego, Miami, @New York, Buffalo
With the exception of an upset loss on the road at San Diego, Tom Brady and co. should win out the rest of the way to finish at 12-4. Not too shabby for a team that was being written off after a blowout loss to Kansas City in week 4. They hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Denver, but that may not matter if San Diego does their part. As in past years, New England’s defensive philosophy seems to take on a “bend, but don’t break” approach, giving up yards but not points.
2. DENVER (9-3)
Buffalo, @San Diego, @Cincinnati, Oakland
With the emergence of C.J. Anderson as a viable running back workhorse, Denver’s offense becomes even more dangerous. Once red-zone favorite Julius Thomas returns from injury, the passing attack will return to business as usual with the dual threat of Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders. Even more encouraging for Denver is the emergence of the defense, with their primary strength being a run defense that only surrenders an AFC-best 72.7 yards per game. The only potential hiccup is the visit to San Diego, but on current form, that should still be a Denver win. Win out, and the #1 seed becomes a distinct possibility.
3. CINCINNATI (8-3-1)
Pittsburgh, @Cleveland, Denver, @Pittsburgh
Andy Dalton has been inconsistent all season long, and yet somehow, Cincinnati is the team that sits atop what is arguably the NFL’s toughest division this year. With the double-headed running monster of Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill churning out good yardage on the ground, and Mohamed Sanu emerging as a viable WR option behind A.J. Green, the offense is relatively set. There are question marks on the defensive end, however, and with 3 matchups remaining against high-powered offenses, it is difficult to project Cincinnati holding on to the division lead.
4. INDIANAPOLIS (8-4)
@Cleveland, Houston, @Dallas, @Tennessee
Speaking of high-powered offenses, Andrew Luck has been in a special zone all season long, leading Indianapolis to a top ranking among league offenses. However, it is not a particularly balanced unit, with the #1 passing offense sometimes hampered by a run offense that barely cracks the top half of the league at #15. Luck will be thrilled when Dwayne Allen makes his comeback from injury, and if unheralded Daniel Herron can continue the momentum from his 3-game line of 28 carries for 163 yards, Indianapolis will be able to keep their offense on the field.
5. SAN DIEGO (8-4)
New England, Denver, @San Francisco, @Kansas City
San Diego’s season has been built on streaks, with a 3-loss streak bookended by a 5-win and 3-win stretch. Coming off their bye week in week 10, this team has found itself in close games, winning 3 games by a combined total of 11 points. The main point has been that they have found a way to win, and in the latter stages of the season, that is all that counts. However, even as well as Philip Rivers has been playing, San Diego has arguably the toughest schedule left among the current AFC contenders. It is not inconceivable that they could go 4-0 or 0-4, and a wobbly defense will need to tighten up to complement the offensive output that Rivers, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, and Ryan Mathews can provide.
6. MIAMI (7-5)
Baltimore, @New England, Minnesota, New York
Sitting atop a cluster of teams at 7-5, Miami is in a particularly precarious position, but they have the benefit of a fairly easy road while remaining in control of their own destiny. 3 wins from here to get to a 10-6 record should be enough to see them through. Ryan Tannehill is at the stage of his young career where his improvement will be solidified by leading the team into the playoffs. The consistency he has shown over the past month has been remarkable (e.g. number of completions since November 2nd: 24, 27, 26, 26, 25), and to take the next step, the completions and yards need to become touchdowns. This is where an underwhelming Mike Wallace will be looked to.
THE BEST OF THE REST
7. Kansas City (7-5) – @Arizona, Oakland, @Pittsburgh, San Diego
8. Buffalo (7-5) – @Denver, Green Bay, @Oakland, @New England
9. Baltimore (7-5) – @Miami, Jacksonville, @Houston, Cleveland
10. Pittsburgh (7-5) – @Cincinnati, @Atlanta, Kansas City, Cincinnati
With the exception of Pittsburgh, the rest of the 7-5 teams have to navigate through tricky schedules, where even the home games are against daunting opposition. Let’s also not forget at this point that the current #11 in the AFC, Cleveland, also stands at 7-5. It is difficult to project Kansas City and Buffalo finishing at better than 8-8, with the level of opposition they have to face. especially Buffalo, whose only remaining home game’s advantage is negated by the fact that they will be facing Green Bay. Baltimore will more than likely finish just above .500, but their reliance on a run-oriented offense and a traditional pocket for Joe Flacco may be their undoing against 4 strong defensive fronts. In one of the odder pivotal matchups in recent years, a Pittsburgh win at Atlanta will go a long way in deciding not just the AFC North, but the NFC South.
PROJECTED AFC FINISH
TheAOSN.com projects the following:
1 seed: Denver wins out to finish 13-3.
2 seed: New England stumbles at San Diego in week 14, but wins out the rest of the way.
3 seed: Indianapolis finishes at 11-5 for a home game in the Wild Card round. Even if they win out to finish at 12-4, New England holds the tiebreaker.
4 seed: Pittsburgh loses at Cincy in week 14, but reels off 3 straight wins to finish at 10-6 and in good form heading into the playoffs.
5 seed: San Diego is strong enough to upset New England but not Denver, and finishes 11-5, setting up a road playoff game against Pittsburgh where they should fancy their chances.
6 seed: Miami takes advantage of a fairly easy route to finish at 10-6.
In the strange type of twist that only a playoff chase could provide, if Miami is able to defeat New England in Foxborough on week 15, they would hold the tiebreaker over New England based on head-to-head record AND hold the common opponents tiebreaker over Indianapolis to finish as the #2 seed. Another twist is that by winning out, San Diego could finish with the top seed. If nothing else, the broad spectrum of permutations that exists with 64 games still left on the NFL’s regular-season schedule only serve to reinforce the uncertainty surrounding the playoff picture.
To close, what better way to end a playoff projection than to revisit one of the greatest NFL postmatch press conference sound bites ever. Jim Mora, your cue:
Happy December, NFL fans! From the Combine to the Draft to offseason workouts to training camp – this is what we’ve all been waiting for.