3:05 p.m., CenturyLink Field, Seattle.
Weather forecast: Hi 50°/Lo 44°; 60% chance of rain.
This will end up being a bookend game for the 2014/2015 season for the losing team, as it is a rematch of the NFL’s Opening Night matchup back in September. Back then, Seattle showed no signs of slowing down from the momentum gained after the Super Bowl win last season as they romped to a 20-point victory.
In that game, Aaron Rodgers was held to under 200 yards passing, was sacked 4 times, intercepted once, and fumbled the ball twice (though neither ended up being a turnover). Fast forward 4 months later, and while Rodgers is still battling a calf injury that will affect his mobility and footwork, Eddie Lacy is far more settled in the running game and the offensive line has gelled to provide better protection for the passing game and open up running lanes.
During the season opener, Rodgers did not pass the ball in Richard Sherman‘s direction at all. The abilities of Seattle’s best defensive back are well-documented, and Jordy Nelson can expect blanket coverage on Sunday afternoon. While the same strategy may not be duplicated, Rodgers’ other passing options like Randall Cobb, Davante Adams, and Andrew Quarless become all the more important.
The Carolina Panthers were successful moving the ball on the ground against Seattle, and Lacy will be hoping to experience the same come Saturday. The battle between him and Seattle’s run-stoppers will be one to watch and could be decisive, as his ability to draw defenders in and still gain positive yardage will open things up for all the receiving options that Rodgers has.
Until facing Dallas last week, Green Bay’s much-maligned defense has also steadily improved over the season, and allowed less than 4 yards per carry and less than 90 yards per game on the ground to opponents in the 2nd half of the season. DeMarco Murray might have exposed some gaps in their run defense with his 123 yards on 25 attempts last week, however, and Marshawn Lynch will want to improve on his pedestrian 59 yards against Carolina last week (with the bulk coming on one 25-yard carry).
Observers and fans alike can surely now file away the notion of Russell Wilson as an average quarterback. While he is a very capable runner, it is his improvisation while on the run that sets him apart from other mobile QBs in the league. This season has also seen a huge development in his pocket passing game, and a few personal statistics stand out:
Playoff completion percentage on 3rd down: 73.9%.
Comeback wins: 14 in just 3 seasons.
January-February QB rating: 109.6
It is almost scary to consider what Wilson and Seattle would be able to accomplish with a big-name wide receiver on their roster, but in the absence of one, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse are a capable duo, while tight end Luke Willson is quietly emerging as a quality player at his position.
On the defensive end, there isn’t much left to say about this unit that hasn’t already been said. If Green Bay intends to keep the game close to strike late, they may be forgetting this is a team that, until last week during garbage time against Carolina, had not given up a 4th-quarter touchdown in seven games. The aforementioned Sherman is the leader of a group that hits hard, tackles hard, and is not afraid to be aggressive in trying to force turnovers.
BOTTOM LINE
Green Bay: Carolina’s game plan provided some hints as to how Seattle might be defeated. The simple conclusion is that Green Bay will have to play mistake-free. Rodgers and Lacy will need to sustain long drives, and their defense will have to be aggressive while not blowing coverage deep. For the latter to happen, Clay Matthews will be depended on in spy coverage on Wilson and to organize the defensive backfield.
Seattle: They showed last week that even if their opponents are able to keep the game relatively close, they have the ability to blow it open with big plays on either side of the ball. All the pieces are in place for them to become the first team in a decade to repeat, but the NFL has shown time and again that nothing can be taken for granted, and they will still have to execute well. If Lynch is contained, then Wilson will have to make something happen either with his arm or his legs.
PREDICTION
Green Bay will come out looking to get on the board early, and will find some success, but Seattle will settle down and should dominate the second half at home. This will not as dominant a win as it was back in September, but count on the repeat bid to roll on to Arizona.
(Feature Image: NFL.com)