Lead ‘Em, Seat ‘Em: Week 1
It’s almost here, you guys! Week 1 of the 2015 NFL season begins in less than 36 hours, and with it the most glorious time of the year: fantasy football.
Each week, I’ll be giving you a heads-up on guys you should be rolling out in your quest for fantasy glory, as well as the pitfalls (Trent Richardsons, if you will) to avoid. It’s my spin on the traditional “start/sit” column, and will also serve as a bit of DFS help as we navigate the shark-infested waters of those daily sites.
Obviously, I don’t need to tell you to start players like Aaron Rodgers and Adrian Peterson every week. If I do, then perhaps you need more professional help than I can provide. These lists are more subtle, more value-and-matchup-based, and could provide you the edge you need to pull out a sneaky victory.
Lead ‘Em
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins; at Washington, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 90.9%, 45.3% start; DraftKings: $7,400; FanDuel: $8,000
http://gty.im/458946292
We know how much we love Tannehill’s potential this year, and while I chose Eli Manning for that particular column, I agree with Derek Tang’s assessment 100 percent.
All reports from preseason action have his deep ball improving dramatically, which makes the addition of Kenny Stills intriguing. Jarvis Landry will be targeted at least 12 times in this game, and Lamar Miller will catch more passes than usual out of the backfield as a way around Washington’s better-than-average run defense. What makes this matchup so exciting for Tannehill, though, is Washington’s 24th-ranked pass defense in 2014, which gave up a net adjusted yards per attempt of 7.2 along with a league-worst 35 passing touchdowns while recording only seven interceptions all season, tied for second-worst in the NFL.
Tannehill could very easily hit 300 yards and three scores for this game, and his mildly-heralded running ability could add another 50 yards and a score as this game will most likely be out of hand sooner rather than later. In DFS, he’s a great value for GPPs and tournaments, as a stack with Landry (who’s also going cheap), so keep an eye out. If you have him, start him in all leagues.
Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals: vs. New Orleans, 4:05 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 96.4%, 68.9% start; DraftKings: $6,400; FanDuel: $7,900
http://gty.im/459465974
I know.
I know!
I know what I said, okay? Jeez, lay off. This is a week-by-week look, not draft advice. Besides, FanDuel has him way overvalued, so that’s probably a good thing, right?
Ellington won’t get more than 12 or 15 carries, but he could catch as many as eight or 10 passes against what was the league’s second-worst overall defense last season. Add to that their 4.8 yards per carry allowed, and Ellington could have a 20-point game in PPR scoring. If you don’t play in PPR, well, I’m sorry. Grow up. He should be started as an RB2 in all PPR leagues, and as a solid flex if you’re in standard.
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers: vs. Chicago, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 94.8%, 64.7% start; DraftKings: $4,400; FanDuel: $5,500
This one really should be a no-brainer, but that 64 percent start number had me concerned, so here we are.
A couple of things we know:
- Jordy Nelson is out for the season.
- Randall Cobb is dinged up, and may not be at 100 percent for this game.
- Who else is Aaron Rodgers going to target?
- It’s the Bears, who play only the loosest version of what we might consider “defense.”
It would not surprise me one iota if Adams and Cobb combined for 35 targets against the shattered toilet that is the Bears pass coverage. If you were wise during your drafts and picked up Adams in the late rounds, this is the week to plug him in over perhaps an over-valued Mike Evans or Sammy Watkins. In DFS? He’s a complete larceny, as his price was fixed before Nelson’s injury. This is the only time all year you can roster a #2 wideout on the league’s best passing offense for that absurdly low salary, and I suggest you take advantage.
Larry Donnell, New York Giants: at Dallas, 8:30 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 62.6%, 33.4% start; DraftKings: $3,200; FanDuel: $5,300
http://gty.im/455449346
I see you, Larry!
I also see you going up against the worst defense in the NFL in 2014 against tight ends, with a quarterback who’s going to be throwing, against a defense who is going to be so focused on stopping Odell Beckham, Jr. they might forget you’re on the field at all.
If you waited at tight end (like I did, and I ended up with Jason Witten; I’m excited for him in this game for mostly the same reasons), or picked up Donnell as a backup, here’s a great week to pull the trigger on starting him. This game shapes up as a total shootout, and all of those touchdowns can’t go to Beckham. I like Donnell better than Jimmy Graham versus St. Louis, Zach Ertz is still questionable, and Martellus Bennett is going to drop so many passes against the Packers he’ll leave you scratching your head.
New York Jets: vs. Cleveland, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 90.3%, 80.4% start; DraftKings: $2,900; FanDuel $4,400
http://gty.im/453666306
The face of a man who’s out to prove he was worth the money (again); Revis may not fill up the box score against the Browns but his fellows will. Josh McCown may well throw five interceptions in this game, and at least one will be a pick six. While the Cleveland offensive line may have gotten beefier, the sacks will come. Have folks forgotten how bad Cleveland is on offense? This may well be a shutout!
Seat ‘Em
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks: at St. Louis, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 99.9%, 86.7% start; DraftKings: $7,800; FanDuel: $8,800
To continue the callbacks, I don’t like Russell Wilson. Yes, I’m a Rams fan. No, that doesn’t color it; I just don’t think he’s particularly talented and I think deep down the Seahawks agree, new contract be damned. He’s essentially Trent Dilfer with a longer shelf life and a hotter girlfriend, and paying him that much will be the ultimate downfall of the Seattle mini-dynasty.
That said, he’s competing in St. Louis this week, against what could be the best defensive line in the NFC. His offensive line may be just as bad as the Rams’ is projected to be, and I believe he will be running for his life. I don’t think he’ll throw many (if any) interceptions, but he may lose a fumble or two. He’s topped 300 yards passing just four times in his career, with one of those coming against the Rams in their 28-26 loss last season at the Dome.
“But Zach!” you’re yelling. “The rushing!”
Yes, reader. Wilson has been known to run with the football; in fact, he set a career-high last season with 849 yards on just 118 carries. However, consider this: how much of that was due to a total lack of a downfield target and just making something out of nothing? That there wasn’t a single receiver to attempt to throw to who could win jump-ball matchups and bail out a scrambling…
http://gty.im/461829739
Oh, right.
Add that to his new shiny contract, and I don’t believe Wilson approaches 400 yards on the ground this year, let alone nosing 1,000. I’d put his line for this game at closer to 15-23, 225 yds, TD, fum lost than anything else.
Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts: at Buffalo, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 99.1%, 89.4% start; DraftKings: $5,400; FanDuel: $7,500
Oh, Frank. I love you, I truly do, as I believe you’re a football robot sent from the future to prevent Tom Brady from taking over the universe, but this just isn’t your game. Buffalo posted the fifth-lowest points allowed to opposing running backs last season, and backs handling the ball in Orchard Park did not enjoy their visit: other than C.J. Anderson‘s three-TD burst and the three rushing scores by the Jets, no running back accrued 100 yards rushing along with scoring a touchdown.
Brandon Marshall, New York Jets: vs. Cleveland, 1 p.m. EST
ESPN ownership: 96.7%, 65.2% start; DraftKings $6,600; FanDuel $7,400
http://gty.im/487376834
See? Even Marshall loves OBJ.
Anyway, there’s one reason and one reason only I’m advocating against Marshall being in your starting lineup:
Haden was thrown at 113 times last season, allowing just 53.1 percent of those throws to be completed. He allowed just four touchdowns and picked off three passes, and was as sure a tackler as any in the league (162 yards after the catch on 60 catches). He roams all over the field, covering the #1 receiver for the offense regardless of where he lines up, as opposed to another cornerback. This will not be Marshall’s breakout week, but look for Eric Decker to benefit from avoiding Haden Fjord©.