Land Mines: Draft At Your Peril

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In any fantasy draft, any expert will preach one thing: value.

Value, in this case, means the statistical return you get for the draft pick investment you make in a player. Case in point: Adrian Peterson was almost a consensus overall number one pick last season, and played one game. One game, for the first overall pick. Poor value. On the other hand, my boy Odell Beckham, Jr. was largely undrafted, and won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Great value.

Obviously, those are extreme examples of my point, but you get the drift. A major key to winning your league is getting the best possible value out of as many players on your roster as possible. Injuries, of course, can’t be helped (as I’ve written before), but with a little know-how you can avoid guys I like to call land mines, or dumpster fires as the case may be. I’ve talked about a few dumpster fires in the past, but I wanted to dig a little bit deeper to help you avoid these pitfalls as this season’s fantasy drafts draw ever closer.

Andre Ellington, RB, Arizona Cardinals

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Before we get into Ellington’s particulars, let’s look at Arizona’s running game from, oh, let’s say 2008 (their Super Bowl year) to the present:

2008: 340 carries, 1,178 yards, 14 TD

While this may look good, this was split almost 50-50 between Tim Hightower and Edgerrin James. Not great fantasy production.

2009: 365 carries, 1,494 yards, 16 TD

Again, a split between Hightower and poor, poor Beanie Wells. We still miss you, Beanie.

2010: 320 carries, 1,388 yards, 9 TD

Look at that! Another split almost 50-50 between Hightower and Wells. Also, who knew Tim Hightower was in the league for that many seasons? I sure as hell didn’t.

2011: 389 carries, 1,625 yards, 12 TD

This year is a bit of an aberration, as Wells totaled 245 carries, 1,047 yards and 10 TDs by himself. Solid RB1, sure, but were you really drafting him that high?

2012: 352 carries, 1,204 yards, 10 TD

Wells suffered turf toe this season, missing several games, as the team rotated between LaRod Stephens-Howling, William Powell and Ryan Williams at starter, so again, not anyone you’d want in fantasy.

2013: 422 carries, 1,540 yards, 12 TD

The year of the Rashard Mendenhall experiment, as he totaled 217 carries and 687 yards to Ellington’s 118 totes for 652. Sensing a pattern here?

2014: 397 carries, 1,308 yards, 6 TD

Ellington was injured again this season and missed serious time, allowing the likes of Stepfan Taylor and Kerwynn Williams to become “starting” running backs in the NFL. This was such a wonderful backfield, in the Cardinals’ 27-16 Wild Card playoff loss to the Carolina Panthers, the team managed only 27 yards rushing on 15 carries.

So, there’s a lesson here. In the past seven seasons, there has been exactly one fantasy-valid running back employed by the Arizona Cardinals. This season is no different: the oft-injured (again, not entirely his fault, but at 5-10 and under 200 pounds, experts argue he is not properly sized to handle the hits a starting back absorbs) Ellington returns, with the flashy and exciting David Johnson expected to be his running mate in the Cardinal backfield.

Sure, Ellington catches passes and could be a valuable RB2 in PPR leagues (currently RB18, 39th overall in PPR)…but look at the past, folks: those who don’t understand or remember history are doomed to repeat it.

Carlos Hyde, RB, San Francisco 49ers

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I freaking love Frank Gore. Let’s just go ahead and get that out there. Hyde was drafted highly last season under the expectation of him slowly assuming the starter’s role as Gore was eased off due to his advancing age.

What the Niners forgot, however, is that Gore is a football robot and has no patience for your human ideas of “fatigue” and “age slowdown.” In any case, Gore bolted the Bay Area for the comforting arms of Andrew Luck, so the starting job in San Francisco is Hyde’s.

In very limited action in 2014, Hyde accrued 83 carries for 333 yards and four scores, a not-exactly-exciting 4.0 yards per carry. Pro Football Focus graded him at a -1.7 overall for the season, with a negative grade on passing plays in 14 of the 15 games in which he appeared. Now that he’s expected to be the number one back protecting Colin Kaepernick (who was sacked 52 times last year, second only to Blake Bortles‘ corpse), are you excited?

Not to mention the otherworldly offseason his team has endured, losing 40 percent of their starting offensive line, switching coaching staffs, and the team signing Reggie Bush? Hyde is currently being drafted right in front of Ellington at RB17 in standard leagues and RB21 in PPR, but I don’t even think he’s that valuable. How is he going before Johnathan Stewart? Seriously? Wake up, people.

Kevin White, WR, Chicago Bears

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Jokes about Jay Cutler aside, let’s examine new head coach John Fox’s love for rookie wide receivers.

According to The Sporting News’ Thomas Emerick, Fox passed over (one of my favorite sleepers) Cody Latimer as a rookie in Denver to give snaps to veteran receiver Andre Caldwell.  CSN Chicago’s John Mullin reported this summer “even high draft picks are virtually never handed a starting job from day one.” Currently behind more experienced players Alshon Jeffery, Eddie Royal and Marquess Wilson, White is also batting severe shin splints in training camp, according to Fox, so his current ADP of WR32 seems a bit more reasonable than it was just a few weeks ago.

Those who were enamored by White’s play at West Virginia last season should heed these facts before investing even a mid-round pick on the talented if frustrating rookie.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

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Before I begin, let’s remember this from last season:

Watkins is incredibly talented, don’t get me wrong. He managed 65 catches on 128 targets (50.7 catch percentage) for 982 yards and six scores, an impressive 15.1 yards per catch while suffering through the quarterback miasma that was Kyle Orton and E.J. Manuel.

This season, though, promises an improved…nope, no. I can’t even finish that. Manuel, Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor (TYROD FREAKING TAYLOR) are contributing to “almost quarterback purgatory” according to THEIR OWN GENERAL MANAGER.

The addition of LeSean McCoy and the absolute failure to invest in a viable starting quarterback almost forces the Bills into being a run-first, run-again-later type of offense, so I certainly expect Watkins’ targets to drop; with that type of “talent” at quarterback, could his catch percentage fall below 50 percent? Do you want to take that bet, even where he’s currently being drafted (WR22 in standard)? I shudder to think.

Victor Cruz, WR, New York Giants

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Cruz, sadly, isn’t on this list because of lack of talent, or poor quarterbacking (I’m in love with Eli, remember?), or even coaching woes. His injury leads him to be my final, and most depressing, dumpster fire on this list.

A torn patellar tendon is:

The structure that connects the kneecap (patella) to the shin bone (tibia). Technically, a ligament is structure that connects bone to bone, and therefore some people refer to this structure as the patellar ligament. However, this structure is really connecting the quadriceps muscle to the shin bone, and a tendon connects muscle to bone, and therefore patellar tendon is the more common description.

The patellar tendon is an important part of the extensor mechanism of the lower extremity. The extensor mechanism includes the quadricps muscle, quadriceps tendon, patella (kneecap), and patellar tendon. These structures allow the knee to straighten, and can do so with significant strength. (Source)

The prognosis is generally favorable, but “there can be long-term weakness even with a successful repair.” A study in the American Journal of Sports Medicine performed on 24 instances of torn patellar tendons in NFL players (1994-2004) showed while “acute surgical repair generally produces good functional results and allows for return to play the following season,” the issue becomes “players chosen earlier in the draft are more likely to return to play.”

Cruz was undrafted in 2010.

Granted, this is less of a land mine, because there’s a solid chance Cruz will be close to his previous form and a valuable (and productive) member of the Giants’ impressive passing attack; however, until I see him in action, I absolutely think drafting him at all is risky, even at WR37 where he’s currently going.

I wish Cruz the best of luck, to be sure, but I’d much rather have Steve Smith, Larry Fitzgerald or Allen Robinson right this second.