Great Expectations
The Montreal Canadiens are going to win the Stanley Cup in 2016.
That is something that would have been okay to say if the playoffs occurred in early November, but as of today, that is about as likely as the Toronto Maple Leafs winning the 2016 Cup. Yes, it is true that the Montreal Canadiens did start the season an amazing 9-0 on the back of rolling four lines with offensive production and a stellar start from Carey Price.
They looked to be 2016 Stanley Cup contenders until Price reportedly suffered a knee injury (though it has only been confirmed as a lower body injury). It is believed that Price re-aggravated an old injury when he stepped on a puck in warm-ups on October 29th.
Price managed to come back a few weeks later, but suffered another setback and has been out since the start of December. According to Marc Bergevin, he will be out for at least a few more weeks after the All-Star break. With 31 games remaining, the Habs are currently five points back from a wild card spot. A far cry from where they started the season.
So, how badly have the Canadiens played minus their number one goalie? Who is at fault, and will they even be able to make the 2016 Stanley Cup Playoffs, let alone contend for a Stanley Cup.
Between the Pipes
Thanks to Carey Price’s injury, Mike Condon was forced to take over the starting job for the Canadiens. The same goalie that had barely played his first year of AHL hockey just one year ago. Condon managed to start off his year 4-1 with a save percentage of .945 causing some people to put him in the conversation (even at 25) as a finalist for this year’s Calder Trophy.
The problem is Mike Condon was not, is not, and seemingly will never be an NHL starting goalie and his numbers have begun to support this. Since starting the season 4-1-0, he has gone 9-12-3 with a goals against average (GAA) of 2.45 and a .904 save percentage. Those are not terrible numbers for a backup goalie, but they trend in the wrong direction for a starter. Especially on a team that had Cup aspirations like Montreal did to start the season.
Condon has not been the only goalie to fill in for Price, but unfortunately, none of the other netminders have fared any better. Dustin Tokarski went 1-3 with a 3.18 GAA and a .878 save percentage before being unceremoniously shipped to Anaheim for prospect Max Friberg. Tokarski’s replacement Ben Scrivens (acquired from the Edmonton Oilers for controversial forward Zack Kassian) has not been able to find a win in four starts for the Habs while having a GAA that is pushing close to 4.00.
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The Front Lines Falter
Goaltending does not stand as the only issue that the Canadiens have faced this season. Since the start of December, they currently represent (among other things) the worst offensive team in the NHL.
The key to a possible turnaround is that the Canadiens desperately need upgrades upfront, especially once you focus on the depth on the wings. Pacioretty and Gallagher are good players but beyond the two of them, there is not a lot of support. Dale Weise, Torrey Mitchell, Brian Flynn, and Thomas Fleischmann are the next four wingers on the depth chart, and that simply has not been enough.
What makes this issue hit even harder is that P.A. Parenteau was never given a chance, and is thriving in a top six role for the Maple Leafs, and Kassian was traded before he even played a game in a Habs sweater. Those are not even the most notable missed opportunities. Alex Semin, who was booted from the team for a lack of production currently, has nine points in 13 games playing for Magnitogorsk Metallburg of the KHL, also had 1.54 points per 60 minutes while on the Habs. A mark that was higher than several current Habs forwards.
To put the forwards struggles into perspective, Alex Galchenyuk, David Desharnais, Brendan Gallagher, and Max Pacioretty have combined for 13 points in the last ten games before Wednesday’s matchup with the Buffalo Sabres. Over that same time frame, a player such as Sidney Crosby has 14 points, Patrick Kane has 12, and Evgeny Kuznetsov has 15 points. When four of your best forwards combined can not match just one of the best on the teams they are trying to stack up against there is a much bigger problem at hand.
Back End Blunders
On defense, outside of PK Subban, Andrei Markov, and Jeff Petry, the Habs have struggled to find any offensive consistency. Tom Gilbert (who some thought to be a steal last summer) has been a complete bust with just one assist.
If the offensive problems that are present are not fixed for the Canadiens, then even the return of Price may not be enough to help the Habs. Carey Price could stand on his head every game he plays when he returns, but it will not matter how he plays if the team is unable to find the back of the net. Price may be their best player, but it will not matter if the play in front of him remains the teams greatest weakness.
What does all this mean for the Canadiens playoff chances?
The numbers show that they are currently mired in one of the worst stretches in their 107-year history:
The website www.sportsclubstats.com calculates playoff chance percentages by finding all the different probabilities for how the season could play out. Based on these scenarios they have the Canadiens pegged at just a 27.1% chance of even making the playoffs.
To put it all in perspective, if the bar was set at a minimum of 95 points to make the playoffs their chances are at about 95%. Montreal would still need to pick up 43 points in the final 31 games of the regular season.
This is not an insurmountable number, but for a team that has struggled as much as Montreal has, it must look like Mount Everest to climb back up the standings and back into the playoffs.