We are in Week 6 of the College Football Bowl playoff hunt and we have a new team in the Top 4: Texas Christian University. TCU not only snuck into the playoff picture with the Mississippi State loss, they leapfrogged ahead of Florida State. Thus the Seminoles, the only undefeated team left, have slipped another spot to No. 4. Seminole Nation is going crazy that they are now barely holding onto a playoff spot. Let us take a look at the Top 10 from last week to this week.
Week 5 Week 6
(1) Alabama (1) Alabama
(2) Oregon (2) Oregon
(3) Florida State (3) TCU
(4) Mississippi State (4) Florida State
(5) TCU (5) Ohio State
(6) Ohio State (6) Baylor
(7) Baylor (7) Arizona
(8) UCLA (8) Michigan State
(9) Georgia (9) Kansas State
(10) Michigan State (10) Mississippi State
Noteworthy moves:
- TCU jumps into the No. 3 spot
- Ohio State and Baylor each move up 1 spot
- Committee did not “penalize” the Ohio State Buckeyes for the J.T. Barrett injury
- Arizona makes a dramatic leap (Could a top-4 spot be in reach with a Pac-12 championship?)
- UCLA & Georgia fall out of the Top 10
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Mississippi State drops six spots but remains in the Top 10
Many individuals are scratching their heads about Baylor being behind TCU. However, even though Baylor beat TCU, they lost to a a West Virginia team who sits at No. 28. TCU will argue that their loss was to a much better team and that they beat West Virginia, a team Baylor could not get by. However, Baylor behind Ohio State could be more of a travesty. Pat Forde of Yahoo may be providing the best explanation:
Using the Sagarin ratings for comparison, here’s what we have between the lordly Buckeyes and the up-and-coming Bears:
Best win for Baylor: No. 3 TCU. Best win for Ohio State: No. 10 Michigan State.
Second-best win for Baylor: No. 9 Oklahoma. Second-best win for Ohio State: No. 34 Minnesota.
Third-best win for Baylor: No. 38 Texas. Third-best win for Ohio State: No. 46 Maryland.
Loss for Baylor: No. 28 West Virginia. Loss for Ohio State: No. 50 Virginia Tech.
Advantage Baylor across the board. Yet somehow, the committee does not see that.
There is still a lot of football left though this weekend that could throw the playoff picture into a loop and send the committee scratching their heads for an answer. If the top 4 teams win, all should remain the same. However, Florida State might want to worry a little if they can only squeak by Georgia Tech in a close game for the ACC Championship and Ohio State happens to thump Wisconsin in the Big 10 title game. Could the committee bump Ohio State over a perfect Florida State? Now, that would send individuals analyzing the playoff committee overboard. However, the committee could determine (rank) the conferences and say the ACC is the weakest. That is doubtful if that will occur but you never know.
Biggest Wild Card
Could the Big 12 be the conference with two teams in? If Baylor takes care of business against Kansas State and one or two teams ahead of them lose–which would not be unlikely (Florida State & Oregon)–could TCU and Baylor both be in the playoff?
Be honest, now. How many had the Big 12 Conference as the conference who had the most realistic chance to have two teams in? Probably not many.
(Featured image: www.frogsowar.com)