After much heartbreak last weekend at New Hampshire, Kevin Harvick and the rest of the Chase for the Cup field will look to claim their spot in 12 that will continue on for the Cup. The Chase moves to Dover for the AAA 400. The Monster Mile is the fastest one-mile concrete oval in the world and is quite the backdrop for the war taking place Sunday.
Joe Gibbs’ Success
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Two drivers have already secured their place in the 12. Denny Hamlin, who won the race at Chicagoland two weeks ago, and Matt Kenseth, who won his fifth race thus far this season a week ago at New Hampshire after Harvick ran out of fuel with 2 laps to go. Kenseth currently holds the lead in points with Hamlin only six points back.
Carl Edwards is as good as gold going into the Monster Mile as he finished once more in a top five position in New Hampshire. He is currently in 3rd in points and is all but literally through to the Contender round.
However, the unfortunate Gibbs’ racer is Kyle Busch. He had a wreck in New Hampshire and is currently sitting in 13th, one point behind the 12th spot. Kyle Busch has been very good at Dover in the past yet has struggled there as of late after a very weak 36th spot finish earlier this year.
Bubble Drivers
Jamie McMurray currently occupies that 11th spot, but he is only 2 points clear of Kyle Busch and Paul Menard. The Monster Mile is far from McMurray’s favorite track as he is accustomed to poor runnings there. He will need a good showing to hold off Busch, Menard and Harvick.
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Dale Earnhardt Jr. is the racer in the 12th position after a few slip-ups at New Hampshire and is only one point clear of both Busch and Menard. In the recent years, Dover has been a bit more favorable to Dale Jr and one can fully expect him to be in the Contender 12 come Saturday, but all fans have became accustomed to take all expectations for Earnhardt with a grain of salt.
Menard sits a point out of the Contender 12, and will look to shock the field and move on. Menard locked a top 10 finish there in May of this year and if he races like that again a place in the 12 will be coming his way.
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Reigning Sprint Cup Champ, Harvick will look to rebound after nearly clinching a spot a week ago when he ran out of fuel with two laps to go. Harvick is 23 points out of the 12th spot and will need a huge showing at Dover plus some major help to move on if he does not win this race in Delaware. Seeing Harvick taking the checkered would be no surprise this weekend as he almost won the race back in May, finishing second. He has an experienced crew and knows the track. He is fully aware of his situation, so watch for Harvick as he will be taking heads Sunday.
The Longshot
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Clint Bowyer is 39 points behind Dale Jr currently and is in need of a win if he wants to move on. Bowyer is a fan of Dover and has recorded 11 top 10 finishes there but has never won a checkered flag at that track. There would be no better time to do so than Sunday. It is unlikely but anything can happen.
All But In
Teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski currently sit at fourth and eighth respectively. Barring a disaster from Keselowski there is no reason why he should not be in the chase a week from now.
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Jimmie Johnson sits at fifth, and should have no issue on Sunday as he has a very nice cushion from 12th.
Ryan Newman and Kurt Busch are currently sixth and seventh. Both drivers have a comfortable 15 points+ cushion from 13th placed Kyle Busch.
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Martin Truex Jr. should both proceed with caution this week. Truex sits 15 points clear of Busch and Menard, but that is still within striking distance. With a clean run, Truex should be safely through, and with three top 10 finishes in the last three races at Dover it looks likely for Truex.
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Jeff Gordon could find himself the odd man out this weekend if he does not have a clean run. He sits in 10th and is 10 points clear of 12th but a wreck can change that very quickly. Fans will expect his experience to be enough to see him through, but this is not the old Jeff Gordon He has struggled this year at times and he is no longer invincible.
Monday Morning
The day after will be met with heartbreak or joy depending on the running witnessed the night before. The AOSN prediction for the Contender 12 goes as followed (no particular order):
Matt Kenseth
Denny Hamlin
Carl Edwards
Joey Logano
Jimmie Johnson
Ryan Newman
Kurt Busch
Brad Keselowski
Martin Truex Jr
Jeff Gordon
Dale Earnhardt Jr
Kyle Busch