And then there were two……
After a qualification process that began all the way back in June of 2011, when mighty Belize defeated Montserrat to yesterday’s second semifinal, it all comes down to this Sunday, when Germany and Argentina, holders of 5 previous World Cups combined, will face off to determine if it will be Philipp Lahm or Lionel Messi who will be the captain who hoists the trophy in victory.
This will be viewed culturally as a clash between Europe and South America, but the truth is that with the majority of Argentina’s players currently plying their trade in European leagues, there is not that big a contrast in playing style between the two.
What should we expect tactically this Sunday?
PHYSICAL FACTORS
By this point of a tournament, fatigue will definitely be coming into play, and there may be fitness concerns. This is where Germany hold a distinct advantage, as they have managed to remain injury-free, and should have no concerns going into Sunday. By contrast, Argentina still have question marks about key midfielder Angel Di Maria, and even though he was seen stretching and warming up on the sidelines yesterday, he was kept out of the action by manager Alejandro Sabella. On top of this, Argentina will be playing their 3rd match in 8 days, whilst this will be Germany’s 3rd match in 9 days. That extra day of rest could be a significant factor come kick-off.
The intensity of competition may also come into play regarding the fitness question, as Germany played their semifinal at a virtual stroll after that remarkable first half against Brazil, and did not have to exert themselves much in the latter stages of the game. Argentina, on the other hand, had to play a full 120 minutes in a driving rain shower the very next day, and even though there isn’t any one factor that should be overstated, this just emphasizes the importance of the extra day of rest the Germans will have had.
While there have been concerns at times about weather conditions in Brazil during the course of the tournament, particularly in the more tropical areas, both teams should be in good shape this Sunday, with Rio expecting a high of only 71⁰F/22⁰C and a slight chance of a rain shower (per weather.com).
PERSONNEL
In goal, Manuel Neuer cuts an imposing figure, and he has been in great form throughout the tournament, most particularly against France, who had more attempts on goal and forced Neuer into more saves than his counterpart Hugo Lloris at the other end in their quarterfinal. Oddly, Neuer has also shown his ability in the field, as he was called upon to be a sweeper-keeper against Algeria in the 2nd round, and he showed no hesitation in coming out of his box several times during that match to stop opposition forays into the German half.
Sergio Romero is no slouch either, and he has yet to concede a goal in 330 minutes of knockout stage football. Of course, today he is more widely-recognized for the two penalty saves against the Dutch in the semifinal.
Defensively, German fans have been happy to see the Philipp-Lahm-as-midfielder experiment end. The stability and leadership he brings to the backline is undeniable. This was most evident against Algeria in the 2nd round, when Per Mertesacker did his best Statue of Liberty impression at times, which allowed Algerian counterattacks to penetrate deep into the German half. Unusually for a German team, they looked quite disorganized in that match.
Keeping the man who is arguably the best right-back in the world in his natural position will likely shift Argentinian emphasis away from that side of the pitch. This may put Benedikt Höwedes under more pressure in the final, as he has been manning the left-back position for Germany throughout the tournament – a position he does not usually play at club level.
Sabella might be wise to explore using Ezequiel Lavezzi and Messi as a dual-threat attack down the right wing early and often to see if Höwedes will be able to respond to the challenge.
Germany’s midfield of Toni Kroos, Mario Götze, Sami Khedira, Thomas Müller, and Mesut Özil enjoyed near total-domination for for most of their semifinal against Brazil. The graph below demonstrates that while Brazil were happy to pass the ball inside their own half, Germany were able to get forward much more frequently, to devastating effect:
(Source: zonalmarking.net)
Mark this down right now: the Germans will NOT be able to enjoy such dominance and will find it harder to exert their will in midfield against the Argentinians, and it will all very likely boil down to one man: Javier Mascherano.
Toiling away deep in midfield, Mascherano does not often get the credit he deserves, especially as a teammate of a certain Lionel Messi. Nonetheless, he has put together a string of superb performances for his country in this tournament, best encapsulated by his game-saving tackle to prevent Arjen Robben from scoring late in the semifinal. He figures to be a contributor again on Sunday, and his influence along with Lucas Biglia deep in Argentina’s midfield will be a key balancing factor against that mighty German midfield. Besides his defensive work, his passing has been something of a revelation during the tournament as well, and his long-ball completion rate has been among the best in the tournament. This could be an overlooked but vital key against a German defense that has shown a tendency to give its opponents space. All this, of course, is assuming that he recovers fully not from the knock to his head, but this injury he picked up against the Dutch.
All joking aside, with Mascherano still in form, Germany will not have the luxury of spaces like these in the final:
Conversely, Argentina’s defense has not really faced a real threat through the knockout stages. Names like Origi, Drmic, and Lukaku do not exactly strike fear into the hearts of defenders the world over, after all, and whilst the Dutch had the firepower and the names to cause them headaches, they adopted a defensive posture throughout their matchup and posed far less of a threat than they could have. They now have to face a German attack that has plenty of goals in it, and goals from different sources, to boot. Ezequiel Garay, Pablo Zabaleta, Martin Demichelis, and Marcos Rojo have been impressive up to this point, and they will need to summon another high-caliber performance to keep the Germans at bay. Marking Müller will be especially tricky for Argentina, given his propensity for floating between a striking and midfield position.
The X factor, of course, will be Messi. It is no coincidence that when he has been given time and space to create something, it has been the difference between an Argentina win and any other result. In all three of their group F matches, this was clear, especially against Iran with the 91st-minute winner:
The pattern has continued in the knockout stage, as Messi played a key role in the buildup to both their winning goals against Switzerland and Belgium. Joachim Löw will have been watching how Dirk Kuyt, Giorgio Wijnaldum, and Ron Vlaar all combined to contain Messi during the semifinal, as he was rendered almost invisible at times, an unheard-of proposition typically. The question is just how much will Germany sacrifice offensively if they decide to concentrate efforts on the defensive end. Look for Bastian Schweinsteiger to be the main marker tasked with keeping Messi in check, and if as expected, he drifts to the right, Höwedes and Özil to a lesser extent will be called upon to help.
INTANGIBLE FACTORS
Several in Argentina’s starting lineup on Sunday will remember the thrashing they got at the hands of Germany in the 2010 quarterfinals. Some were even in the lineup when they lost to Germany in the 2006 quarters. On top of that, Argentinian fans will be eager to exorcise the memory of their disgraceful loss in the 1990 final. A couple of the older players on the Argentinian squad will even be able to recall seeing their beloved country fall to the Germans, and will no doubt be recalling that experience for their younger teammates to motivate them.
Much has also been made of Messi enhancing his legacy as a legend of the sport with a World Cup win, and all eyes will be on him to see how he responds at this final hurdle. Once criticized for not putting the same heart into national team performances as he does at club level, he has dispelled any notions about giving less than 100% in this tournament, and he should be ready to leave a final mark.
The crowd factor will be an interesting one to observe. By the end of the semifinal, Brazilian fans were applauding and even cheering on the Germans as a sign of respect while booing their own countrymen. Even though there may be some prevailing sentiment that a World Cup held in South America should be won by a South American team, I would hazard a guess that the majority of Brazilian fans would rather support Germany than see Argentina win a World Cup on Brazilian soil.
Germany will be vying to make footballing history of their own, as they would become the first European team to win a World Cup in the Americas at this, the 8th edition held in the western hemisphere.
OUTLOOK
No score or winner prediction here. At this point of the tournament, there is no telling how any of the variables will play out. This much should be true: this final should give us a match befitting the occasion and truly showcasing the sport to the watching world. Germany’s lineup is not the type of team to sit back and merely try to avoid mistakes while nullifying the opposition, and Argentina cannot afford to take the risk of doing the same because of the numerous options the Germans have.
(GIF credits: @FlyByKnite)
(Image credit: wallwidehd.com)