The NFL kicks off 2015 by picking up right where 2014 left off and getting the playoffs underway. After 17 weeks, 12 teams remain with a shot at the sport’s biggest prize come February 1 in Glendale, Arizona. Of that dozen, 4 will be eliminated this weekend at the conclusion of the Wild Card round. Which 4 will stay alive to advance to the Divisional Round?
It took until the first Sunday of December for Carolina to win their 4th game following a 7-game winless streak. It was an incredible month which followed, however, as they won out the month, outscoring their opponents by 111-43. The defensive effort has been a huge part of their turnaround, and this has been a long time coming after their defensive performance last season.
There is every reason for Luke Kuechly and his defensive teammates to be confident going into this game. For the month, they only surrendered 158.3 passing yards per game, 97.5 rushing yards per game, and only gave up 2 red-zone touchdowns: 1 of which was a garbage-time touchdown at the end of their blowout of New Orleans. On top of that, they will be facing a third-string QB in Ryan Lindley, who has struggled to adapt to life as an NFL starter after taking the reins when Drew Stanton went down. Arizona has also been struggling in the running game ever since Andre Ellington went down for the season.
On the offensive end, Carolina welcomes back DeAngelo Williams, but the tandem of Williams and Jonathan Stewart may find it tough going against a stout run defense. This is where Cam Newton will have to step up and ensure that he will be able to find his receivers and use his legs to keep Arizona’s defense on their toes. With Greg Olsen and Kelvin Benjamin sure to attract most of the defensive attention, keep an eye on Jerrico Cotchery, who has quietly become a dependable possession receiver and may be a difference-maker.
TheAOSN.com Prediction: Unlike the 2008 matchup, where Jake Delhomme threw 5 interceptions after Carolina took an early lead, this should be a much more favorable outcome for the home team.
CAROLINA 27, Arizona 17
Much (but not all) of Pittsburgh’s chances to win hinge on the availability of Le’Veon Bell following the knee injury he picked up in week 17. Ben Roethlisberger has enough at his disposal to lead his team to the win, especially within the friendly confines of Heinz Field, but it will be a much closer game if Bell is unable to take the field. Even with the midweek signing of Ben Tate, the rest of Pittsburgh’s backfield is quite simply too untested in the environment of a meaningful game, let alone a playoff game.
Following the preseason turmoil resulting from the Ray Rice controversy, Baltimore limped out of the gate to start the season, but have done well in finishing with a 10-win season. Joe Flacco has turned things around after a subpar 2013, and though not spectacular, he is a very capable QB who has the experience of a Super Bowl run to count on.
With two vulnerable secondaries on the field, this game may boil down to each team’s respective WR corps. Baltimore will lean on the rejuvenated Steve Smith Sr. and Torrey Smith, who is about as good as a WR2 can get in the league; while Pittsburgh has MVP candidate Antonio Brown and rookie star Martavis Bryant, who has the ability to turn a slant pattern into a long catch-and-run in the blink of an eye.
TheAOSN.com Prediction: Count on Pittsburgh for the win. Whether it will be a nail-biter or a comfortable one for them depends on whether Bell is able to play. Rain is in the forecast, so this may boil down to tired hands fumbling the ball away late in the game.
PITTSBURGH 31, Baltimore 23
The Jekyll-and-Hyde inconsistency of Cincinnati, and most particularly of Andy Dalton, makes it difficult to feel any confidence in their chances at a road win. On top of that, Andrew Luck has been one of the most consistent QBs in the league this season, and he is at the point of his career now where he is still on the up-side. What few questions remain about Luck’s ability focus on the decision-making department, where several of his forced passes have become turnovers this season, and a playoff win will go a long way in addressing those concerns.
Dwayne Allen‘s return to practice will have been a welcome sight for Indianapolis. Coby Fleener has been a decent fill-in during Allen’s absence, but the latter’s blocking ability is where the difference lies, and the unheralded surprise Daniel Herron and workmanlike Trent Richardson may see better lanes open up for them. Meanwhile, A.J. Green is banged up for Cincinnati, and in his absence, more will fall on the shoulders of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard to help move the chains.
TheAOSN.com Prediction: Luck has healthy receivers. Dalton does not. Both QBs are prone to turnovers, but T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne should give Luck the edge.
INDIANAPOLIS 30, Cincinnati 23
Tony Romo has been decidedly un-Romo like this season, and takes his league-leading QB Rating into this home matchup as an overwhelming favorite (Dallas is currently favored by more than a touchdown at the moment). Behind what is arguably the league’s best offensive line, Romo and DeMarco Murray have thrived in 2014, putting up career numbers.
This will be no cakewalk for Dallas, though, as Detroit has been a very strong defensive team this season. Ndamukong Suh will be eager to put last week’s controversy behind him, and with Nick Fairley resuming practice, it could be a tremendous battle at the line of scrimmage whenever Dallas is on offense. Murray has not looked his usual dominating self after his arm surgery, but Joseph Randle has been long overdue this season to take some carries anyway.
With Dez Bryant available as not just a top receiving threat, but as a bail-out option, Romo could be in line for a big game. For Detroit’s part, there is Calvin Johnson as their main option, and while Dallas’ secondary has performed above expectations this season, Johnson and Golden Tate will be a stiff test. The change of pace between Reggie Bush and Joique Bell will also look to challenge Dallas’ top-10 rush defense.
TheAOSN.com Prediction: Dallas has defied expectations in almost every facet of the game this season, and other than Murray’s arm, there is little reason to think they will buck that trend this weekend. If Good Matthew Stafford shows up, this will be a shootout.
DALLAS 34, Detroit 30