![afc_championship]()
![Colts]()
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ ![Patriots]()
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
6:40 p.m., Gillette Stadium, Foxborough.
Weather forecast: Hi 44°/Lo 32°; 90% chance of rain
The week after dismantling the favored Denver Broncos, Andrew Luck will be looking for his first career win against New England. This will be his 4th time facing off against Tom Brady and co., and in the previous 3 encounters, New England has outscored Indianapolis by 144-66.
Star wide receiver T.Y. Hilton will be the main target for Luck, but he will be shadowed all night by shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis. If Hilton is reduced to a non-factor, Luck has no shortage of options. Running back Daniel Herron, who had 95 yards of total offense and 1 touchdown in the win over Denver, will be counted on in the running game and on the receiving end, rookie Donte Moncrief and the tight end duo of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener all have the capability to turn in big plays.
There are some injury concerns for Indianapolis on the defensive end, as their two starting cornerbacks Vontae Davis and Greg Toler have only just resumed practice after picking up injuries last week. If they are unable to be at their sharpest or ruled out, that will leave a gaping hole in the secondary for Brady to exploit.
And if there is one thing anyone facing New England will not want to do, leaving openings in the defensive backfield is precisely that. Rob Gronkowski will feast on open spaces all night long from the slot or up the middle, Brandon Lafell is not flashy but he has proven to be a dependable possession receiver, and the suddenly-resurgent Danny Amendola has the speed and hands to be the deep threat.
If Brady cannot connect with his receivers, then perhaps Julian Edelman can……
Unlike last week, when New England almost completely abandoned the running game, the blueprint on offense if weather conditions turn bad will be to control the ball. Jonas Gray was a surprise inactive against Baltimore last week, but he may be in line for a return – Gray racked up 201 yards and 4 touchdowns against Indianapolis earlier this season. Head coach Bill Belichick may also opt for a platoon of backs between Gray, Brandon Bolden, LeGarrette Blount, and Shane Vereen. Per his usual style, look for Belichick to stick with the hot hand out of the backfield.
New England did not emerge unscathed from the comeback win over Baltimore last week, though – starting center Bryan Stork left the game early and has not practiced yet this week. In rainy weather, this game may boil down to a fundamental mistake such as a bad snap, so this will be a situation worth monitoring.
BOTTOM LINE
Indianapolis: Luck will need to be at his sharpest and avoid turning the ball over. The win against Denver was impressive by Indianapolis on both sides of the ball, but Luck still forced the ball into coverage and got picked off twice. Those are mistakes he cannot afford against New England. The defensive front seven had a good game against Denver, and Brady has always shown a tendency to get flustered under a heavy pass rush. It may be worth the gamble to send blitzers early and often to disrupt New England’s rhythm. This team adapted well to weather conditions at high altitude last week, and they will need to maintain that form.
New England: They showed not once, but twice last week that they are capable of playing from behind. They will be looking for a better start this week, and look for Brady to test the Indianapolis DBs early, especially with Gronkowski and Amendola in good form. Unlike last week, the running game will be a key to controlling the clock, which is where they have the advantage in this matchup with better backs.
PREDICTION
Upset alert? A disciplined and well-executed performance carried Indianapolis to the win last week, and could very well do the same this week. Luck is mature beyond his years, and this playoff run has seen him grow in leaps and bounds. The stakes are high in this AFC Championship, and after having defeated Peyton Manning last week, we may be on the cusp of a passing of the torch in the conference this week.
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