I usually try to avoid using first person when writing. It’s much more professional. However, after watching film of this years quarterback crop, I feel like I need to talk in first person to be more conversational and get my point across. This years signal callers are under a lot of scrutiny, especially since so many other areas in the draft are so deep. If your team is looking to address the position this year, they better be sure they get the right guy with so many other great options available. Luckily there are a few that have the potential to lead a team for years to come. Here is my analysis of each of the top 12 quarterback prospects in the 2014 NFL Draft, in order of how I would pick them.
1. Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
A lot has happened since the end of the college football season when Teddy Bridgewater was at the top of most quarterback rankings. What happened? Fast 40-yard dashes at the combine in underwear? Johnny Manziel completing scripted and well practiced passes in shoulder pads? Honestly who cares? What matters is how a guy plays on game day (and obviously team interviews which none of us have access to).
Teddy Bridgewater displayed decent arm strength, solid accuracy, and a tendency to get the ball out quickly. He was mobile and even showed the ability to improvise when needed. What’s interesting about his tape is how precise he was with his execution. It was like art on the gridiron. On deep passes he typically floats the ball rather than sending a rocket down the field. The only part about it that makes me nervous is how close those passes seemed to be. It was strange how often his pass floated and landed in his receivers hands just in the nick of time before a defender got there. My only question is what will the speed of NFL do to his precision? Will he adapt to how quickly defenders close in or do those precise plays become interceptions? Only time will tell.
Still, Teddy Bridgewater is the safest pick if you’re looking for a franchise quarterback this year. He can stay in the pocket and run an offense or make plays with is feet and creativity. You won’t find a more complete package in a signal caller this year.
NFL Comparison: Joe Montanta. No I’m not saying Bridgewater is a sure-thing Hall of Famer but his play-style is similar to Montana. He is quick to make a decision, has a decent but not great arm, and can improvise when he needs to. It was tough to find the right comparison in a current player.
2. Blake Bortles, Central Florida
Blake Bortles is only second to Bridgewater because I don’t feel as certain about his game in the NFL. His talent is something you can fall in love with though. He has the prototypical size for a quarterback and is built very strong. He has the arm to make every throw you can ask of him, and fairly accurately too. He can move in and out of the pocket and is EXTREMELY hard to bring down. Also as a bonus he is very adept at running the option…just in case any NFL coaches are beastly enough to let their quarterback run on a regular basis.
The only major drawback to his game is that he trusts his arm strength too much. He plays similar to Lions quarterback, Matt Stafford, but he doesn’t quite have a Matt Stafford arm. It’s something that he didn’t pay for in college very much but in the NFL it will cost him a lot if he’s not careful.
NFL Comparison: Ben Roethlisberger. His size and play are very reminiscent of Roethlisberger. Both guys are big and very hard to bring down. Like Ben, Bortles can break a tackle with sheer strength and keep a play alive with his feet. They both have big arms and can hurt you in many ways.
3. Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M
Forget about the celebrity status. Forget about the autograph scandal. Forget about whether his brand or his team is more important to him. All that matters in this article is his ability to play the game.
With Manziel you have a downright remarkable, even heroic, ability to improvise, stretch, confuse, and against all odds, make a play! He is very fun to watch. But what does he have that can translate to the NFL? Well as for the speed of the NFL vs his improv skills, only time will tell. What he does have is the sixth sense that every great passer needs to feel pressure in the pocket and avoid it. He has already mastered the ability to sense the pass rush and shuffle away from it while keeping his eyes down field. You cannot teach this. Either a quarterback can do this or he can’t. Some learn their rookie year, second year, later in the career, or not at all. Johnny does it now and he does it as well as anyone in the NFL.
What do you have to worry about? Well to start, his arm strength is average at best. His accuracy is also nothing to write home about. While it’s not something that is necessarily a negative, it certainly doesn’t help make up for his lack of arm strength. It’s tough to tell if his arm will do him any favors in the NFL because his receiving corp was so good. Everyone knows that Mike Evans was spectacular but Darel Walker deserves credit for adjusting to make great catches all year long. How will Johnny do on a team with receivers who can’t bail him out of bad situations?
NFL Comparison: Russel Wilson. They both have the ability to move around and make plays with their legs. Wilson has a better arm though.
4. Jimmy Garappolo, Eastern Illinois
On tape it’s easy to think Jimmy Garappolo is the best quarterback in this draft…and he might be. He has it all: a strong arm, accurate passes, quick decisions, good decisions, mobility, improvisational skills, and production. He looks like a man who stands above his competition.
Well that’s because he did. He played for Eastern Illinois in the FCS. He was just flat out better than his competition. It’s hard to tell if he is really that good or if the speed of the game made him look that good. Obviously arm strength and accuracy are something he has on any level. The question is what happens to his ability to make good, quick decisions in the NFL? The speed of the game is the hardest thing to adjust to for players coming from the FBS. Making the leap from the FCS is even bigger.
NFL Comparison: Drew Brees. Like Brees, Garappolo commands his offense down the field with poise and confidence. He makes quick, precise decisions like a boss. If he can translate his game to the NFL, he will be the best quarterback in this class.
5. Derek Carr, Fresno State
Welcome to the second tier of this years quarterbacks. Carr is the only guy in it. The reason is because he is so hard to evaluate. I can’t stand watching Fresno State games! It seems like they run more screens per game than anyone runs in one season. Sure it worked, but for variety’s sake please run something else!
It also means the vast majority of Derek Carr’s ‘passes’ did not show off his capabilities. When he was asked to throw down field two things were very apparent: Carr is more than comfortable with check downs and when he does throw more than 10 yards it’s not inspiring. Derek Carr likes slants, drags, and flat routes more than anyone in the draft. There’s nothing wrong with those routes but you do need to occasionally throw somewhere else in the NFL. When he did throw deep it was mostly down the sidelines and it was nothing to write home about. Sometimes it was a gorgeous package delivered where it needed to be, right on time. Often it was a floating duck delivered inaccurately. Luckily for him, his receivers could take screens and short passes and make plays out of them. If you want to throw screens, slants, screens, drags, and screens then Derek Carr is the perfect quarterback for you.
NFL Comparison: I don’t know but Marc Trestman loves screens so he should probably go to the Bears.
6. A.J. McCarron, Alabama
By all accounts, McCarron is a smart quarterback who has plenty of experience running a pro-style offense. His arm has the strength to make most throws and he hits his target fairly accurately most of the time. He also puts on a clinic when faking for play-action.
The problem is that he doesn’t display any elite physical talent and has spent four years playing for the best team in college football. Over the past decade or so, that has not been a winning ticket for quarterback prospects. What will he look like when he is not on the most talented team in his respective level of football?
NFL Comparison: Matt Leinart. Matt Leinart was surrounded by the best talent college football had to offer. In the NFL things evened out and he had to be more than he was at USC. Leinart was not nearly as bad as most think but he wasn’t great either. A decent backup and spot starter when he wasn’t plagued by injuries. McCarron will face the same challenges as Leinart.
7. David Fales, San Jose State
David Fales does a lot of things well while also bringing up a lot of question marks. He makes very quick decisions and throws the ball accurately. He does this on a very consistent basis. It’s hard to tell sometimes if he is locking onto his first target or if his system calls for simple reads. He also played in the WAC so his competition was mostly beneath him. One more thing that makes me nervous is that he operated almost exclusively out of shotgun. Is he comfortable taking a snap under center and dropping back? None of this is his fault though. He did a great job of doing what he was asked to do against who he had to play. For all we know he could have been capable of running any offense against any conference. The questions will linger until he gets a chance to play in the NFL.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Weeden/Blaine Gabbert. Now don’t take that as a knock on Fales. The reason I compare him to them is because they both had to make the transition from a college spread offense to the NFL. It’s a lot to take in and a big leap to make…on top of the normal leap from college to pros. I hope David Fales has better luck than Weeden and Gabbert.
8. Tom Savage, Pittsburgh
Tom Savage might have the strongest arm of this years crop. He stands tall in the pocket, sets his feet, and delivers bullets to his targets. Unfortunately he doesn’t have the skill to wield that cannon. He almost never hits his target in the numbers, consistently forcing his receivers to adjust to the ball. Savage also frequently over-throws deep passes. Maybe a quarterback guru can fix these problems but right now you just can’t trust his arm unless you give him Anquan Boldin, Calvin Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald to throw to. Another thing he needs to work on is not locking onto receivers. Also he doesn’t seem to have an internal clock and at times seems completely oblivious too the pass rush. On the other hand, he often delivers passes right as he is about to get drilled, like a boss.
NFL Comparision: Matt Stafford. Like Stafford, Tom Savage likes to lock onto receivers and use his arm strength to make the pass work for him. The problem for Savage is that while his arm is very strong, Stafford’s is stronger. Also Stafford is locking onto Calvin Johnson.
9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
I’m going to be hunted down by some die-hard Bulldogs fans for this one. Aaron Murray has a sub-par arm, shaky accuracy, and is a product of a very good football team. He is a poor mans A.J. McCarron. He has a lot of experience running a pro-style offense. Before his injury this year, he was carried by a very good ground game. In 2012, he was carried by a solid ground game and an absolutely, awe-inspiring display of a breathtaking defensive masterpiece. Did I mention Georgia’s defense in 2012 was stunning? Seriously, the offense could have done anything it wanted and they probably would have won. Aaron Murray is a career backup. His experience will allow him to do well in the film room but his talent will betray him on an NFL field.
NFL Comparison: Matt Flynn. The guy knows football but doesn’t have the talent to be a full-time starter.
10. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
Tajh Boyd is athletic. He can run the option very well and throw to very talented receivers. Otherwise he is just not a very good quarterback. He has average arm strength and accuracy, struggles with reads, and his height doesn’t do him any favors. When you consider that he spent his whole college career throwing to Sammy Watkins, DeAndre Hopkins, and DeWayne Allen it’s no wonder he broke so many ACC records. Hopefully the team that drafts him plans to run a lot of option and equip him with an overwhelmingly talented set of receivers.
NFL Comparison: Dennis Dixon. He is an option quarterback. Both are athletic but cannot get it done from the pocket in the NFL.
11. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are two receivers with a spectacular ability to jump, twist, react, adjust, and just overall find a way to catch a football. If not for having two guys with this extraordinary skill set, Zach Mettenberger would not be on anyone’s draft radar. Seriously, he threw it up for grabs to these guys every play and they rewarded him by catching it. Too high? They jumped up and snatched it. Behind the route? They stopped, turned, and got it. Wrong shoulder? They contorted their body and stretched out to catch it. If you’re an NFL team with Zach Mettenberger on your board, do yourself a favor: drop him off the list completely and move Beckham and Landry up much higher.
NFL Comparison: Ryan Leaf? There’s not much to compare him to. Just know that Beckham and Landry will do even better without him.
12. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech
Logan Thomas takes a long time to make the wrong decision and throw an inaccurate pass to a covered receiver. On the other hand he runs the ball like a champion. He has a nice combination of size, speed, and power. Maybe someone can find a way to use that.
NFL Comparison: Brandon Jacobs. Jacobs was a tall and powerful running back for the Giants for several years. Thomas’ best bet is a position change.
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