A quarter-way into the 2014 season, several trends and patterns have already emerged from each of the 32 teams in the league. Some have been predictable, while others have been rather surprising. Several factors have come into play, with injuries rearing their ugly head, off-field issues affecting key personnel, and lack of form from star players. As week 5 approaches, now is as good a time as any to step back and take a look at where each team stands in preparation for the rest of the season.
Part 1 will look at the 16 AFC teams, ranked according to divisional standings, and part 2 will review the NFC teams.
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers (3-1)
Candidates for the most impressive start of the season, the Chargers have been rolling behind Philip Rivers’ outstanding play (70.1% completion rate, 1155 yards, 9 TDs, 1 INT) and a resurgent Eddie Royal (4 TDs). All this has been accomplished on the offensive side of the ball with lead running backs Ryan Mathews and Danny Woodhead ruled out by injuries, the latter for the season. The defense currently ranks among the top 5 in the AFC, and among the league leaders in sacks and forced fumbles, showing a much-improved pass rush behind Dwight Freeney and Donald Butler.
Outlook: Losing Mathews, who was contending for a breakout year in 2014, hurts, but if he returns in good form and Donald Brown is able to turn his plodding style into more efficient running to ensure a better ball-control offense, San Diego is in good shape for a playoff run.
Denver Broncos (2-1)
Offensively, things are clicking on offense with Julius Thomas continuing his rise as one of the premier tight ends in the league and Emmanuel Sanders picking up the slack following Eric Decker’s departure. Montee Ball is yet to come close to a 100-yard game, but he should be able to start moving the ball behind an offensive line that has been able to protect Peyton Manning well so far and has the potential to open up some running lanes. The main concern on this team is on the defensive side, where a slew of key pickups (Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward, and DeMarcus Ware) has yet to help a unit that gave up 350+ yards per game last season. In fact, in 3 games so far, they have come closer to giving up four hundred yards per game.
Outlook: No concerns on offense, but they cannot afford to hinge on simply outscoring opponents in every game.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-2)
No 9-0 run to start the season this year, but an impressive 2-game win streak to even out their record after a disappointing opener and a close loss to Denver should leave the Chiefs with good reason for optimism for the road ahead. Previously, talk of a backfield time-share involving Jamaal Charles may have been unheard of, but Knile Davis (239 yards in last 2 games) has emerged as a more than capable backup to spell Charles, and together, they make up an imposing 1-2 punch at RB. Another emerging offensive threat is tight end Travis Kelce, who has the combination of hands, speed, and strength that could see him enter the ranks of elite TEs this season. This defensive unit shapes up as better than average, behind one of the best pass rushes in the league.
Outlook: A great ball-control team that can eat up chunks of the clock on offense, but they will need a better run defense to prevent teams from doing the same to them.
Oakland Raiders (0-4)
This is statistically the worst offensive team in the league. Their head coach was fired by phone after their week 4 loss in London. Rookie starting QB Derek Carr has been ruled out with a multi-week injury. An aging backfield utilizing two RBs past their prime in Darren McFadden and Maurice Jones-Drew. The toughest 2014 NFL schedule. Is there any reason out there for Raiders fans to be optimistic about how the rest of this season plays out?
Outlook: Well, there is the #1 pick to play for……and on the bright side, the Raiders are guaranteed to not lose in week 5.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills (2-2)
After getting off to a surprising 2-0 start, the Bills have come back down to earth with 2 straight losses yet somehow still sit atop the division. E.J. Manuel is giving way to Kyle Orton at QB, and while Orton is no gunslinger, it should improve upon an anemic pass offense that will lean on rookie Sammy Watkins. On the ground, it seems that every year C.J. Spiller is poised to become a feature back, Fred Jackson shows enough in his performances to earn a playing time split. The rush defense has been extremely strong, having not given up a touchdown on the ground to date and limiting opponents to less than 75 yards per game.
Outlook: A more efficient passing game will open things up on the ground, and as long as their division opponents struggle, they could go on a surprise run.
Miami Dolphins (2-2)
Much was made of the rumor that Ryan Tannehill was facing the prospect of a benching after less-than-stellar efforts so far, but an impressive 23/31-278-2 outing against the Raiders in London has bought him some precious time and confidence heading into a bye week. That may be the only favor the early bye week does for this team, as a fairly tough schedule awaits them through the end of November before the stretch run. With Knowshon Moreno sidelined with a long-term injury, Lamar Miller will have to pick up the slack, and Mike Wallace will have to do the same on the receiving end.
Outlook: On the basis of form thus far, .500 may be the best that Miami can expect come the end of the season.
New England Patriots (2-2)
37-year old Tom Brady infamously responded to a question about retirement in the preseason by saying “When I suck, I’ll retire,” and while he may not yet fully fit that description, the Patriots offense is definitely struggling. Rob Gronkowski has not looked anywhere near the dominating force that he used to be, and the lack of any other premier receiving threat might finally be catching up with them. Their saving grace has been on the defensive end, with Chandler Jones and Jerod Mayo leading a unit that has racked up 6 interceptions and 9 sacks already.
Outlook: The embarrassing defeat on Monday Night Football in week 4 exposed a lot of weaknesses on this team, and it could get worse for them before it gets any better. A losing record at their bye week in week 9 is not inconceivable.
New York Jets (1-3)
A remarkable 63.3 rushing yards per game coupled with over 150 rushing yards on the offensive side usually translates to a team with a winning record, yet the Jets have been unable to turn their dominance on the ground into wins. Geno Smith has to shoulder at least part of the blame for this, ranking as the lowest-rated QB among those who have started all games for their teams so far this season. Eric Decker (3.3) and Jeremy Kerley (5) are not getting the ball near enough times for them to sustain an aerial threat.
Outlook: Unless Smith begins to show better decision-making, this offense will not take the team anywhere.
AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals (3-0)
Despite putting up statistics that are comparable to a certain Denver QB, Andy Dalton still shoulders the burden of the “overrated” label. Having game-breaking talent such as A.J. Green and Giovanni Bernard around him only adds to the perception of Dalton as nothing more than a game manager and yet, the Bengals sit as one of the last undefeated teams in the league. A defensive approach of bending but not breaking, led by unheralded defensive backs Terence Newman and George Iloka, has seen this unit give up high yardage (350= per game) but few points (league-leading 11 per game).
Outlook: A favorable schedule leaves 8-0 as a possibility. The playoffs seem to be a given for this team on its current form, but fans and observers alike remain skeptical about Dalton’s ability in the clutch.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1)
In spite of heavy criticism of how team management handled the Ray Rice affair, the Ravens have dealt admirably with the internal strife. A scoreless opening half of the season seemed to spell trouble for the team, but since then, Joe Flacco, a resurgent Steve Smith, and a hard-tackling defensive unit have gone on a tear, winning 3 straight. A clear leader needs to emerge between Bernard Pierce, Justin Forsett, or rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro to establish a more consistent ground attack, and they also need better play from the secondary, which has given up over 1000 passing yards already.
Outlook: The last two factors cannot be overlooked if this team is to truly contend for a playoff spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Just one week after a dominant performance on the road against Carolina, the Steelers were rather shockingly beaten at home by an underwhelming Tampa Bay team. This type of Jekyll-and-Hyde inconsistency has the potential of derailing any hopes they have of making the playoffs. Le’Veon Bell is showing no signs of a sophomore slump, and can rightly be considered one of the best RBs in the league right now, if not the best. Ben Roethlisberger continues to enjoy a great partnership with Antonio Brown, and with other threats like Markus Wheaton emerging, don’t count this offense out. Defensively, however, this unit is a far cry from previous incarnations of the mighty Steelers defense.
Outlook: The next few weeks through their late bye in week 12 has to demonstrate improvement, before a tough final stretch with 5 straight against good offensive teams.
Cleveland Browns (1-2)
Drafting Johnny Manziel may have been a public relations bonanza for the Browns, but now that the focus is purely on the field, there remains plenty of work to be done. Ben Tate’s injury left a gap in the running game that Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West have filled with mixed results. It is the lack of dependable receivers that has hurt Brian Hoyer the most as the team waits and hopes for the return of Josh Gordon. 3rd-year undrafted pro Tashaun Gipson has been a positive surprise in an otherwise poor defense that has performed well below their 2013 level.
Outlook: Gordon returns later this season, but it will probably be too late to turn around their 2014 fortunes by then.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans (3-1)
As expected, J.J. Watt has been the lynchpin for this team’s turnaround from last year, and they have already surpassed their 2013 win total after just 4 games so far. A fairly light schedule the rest of the way might even net them enough wins to make the playoffs. Just as well that Watt and his defensive teammates have been in inspired form so far, because the Texans’ offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in just about every major category. If DeAndre Hopkins can continue his rise as a deep threat, that could spark them to much-needed offensive improvement, especially as Arian Foster continues to battle injury.
Outlook: Their easy schedule and division should see them make the playoffs. The divisional matchups against Indianapolis in weeks 6 and 15 could decide their season.
Indianapolis Colts (2-2)
Starting the season 0-2 was a huge disappointment for this Colts team, but they have rebounded nicely, winning their next tw0 by a total of 51 points. Andrew Luck has firmly inserted his name into early MVP discussion, leading the league in yards and touchdowns, and even though Trent Richardson is still not playing at the level of his excellent rookie season, he is showing some slow improvement. Bolstering the backfield is his partner Ahmad Bradshaw, who is enjoying a mini-resurgence, particularly as a pass-catching RB. If blocking specialist Dwayne Allen improves on his pass-catching, this offense will be difficult to contain. Defensively, they could use improvement, especially now that Robert Mathis has been ruled out for the season.
Outlook: Good enough to be a playoff team, but their lack of a more imposing defense may hinder much progress.
Tennessee Titans (1-3)
An impressive week 1 win over Kansas City has since been followed by 3 straight losses, all in convincing fashion. The stage appears to be set for Bishop Sankey to take over backfield duties and Delanie Walker has been a solid performer. Elsewhere on offense, however, others have failed to impress, and the question of whether or not Jake Locker will take the step to the next level continues to be a hotly-debated issue in Titans country. A return to week 1 form, where the Titans held the Chiefs to just 245 yards of offense, will be what this defense needs to reclaim to turn their season around.
Outlook: Tipped in the preseason to be a surprise team, this has instead been a typical up-and-down year for them, but with more downs.
Jacksonville Jaguars (0-4)
Now that the Blake Bortles era has begun, and with fairly good play for a rookie QB to boot, there is good reason for some optimism among Jaguars fans. The problem is that in every other aspect of the game, the Jaguars still have trouble matching up favorably against opponents. Toby Gerhart, finally getting a shot as a starter, is not yet justifying the Jags’ investment in him, Cecil Shorts still cannot get healthy, and the defense has already demonstrated an inability to hold leads. There is one other bright spot, though, with undrafted rookie Allen Hurns averaging an eye-popping 21.2 yards per catch so far.
Outlook: They will lose, and lose often, but in Bortles and Hurns, a couple of building blocks are already in place as long-term answers.
Comments and discussion can be found here.
